Hezbollah Leader Declares New Phase in War With Israel

Facts

  • Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said during the funeral of top commander Fuad Shukr that the war with Israel has entered a new phase and a response to Shukr's killing is 'definite,' adding that the group's response would be proportionate to the Israeli strike on Shukr.[1]
  • Nasrallah also stated that Israel had crossed red lines and it 'must now expect rage and revenge on all the fronts supporting Gaza.' He also partially blamed the US for escalating tensions in the region.[2]
  • Nasrallah said that several countries had urged Hezbollah not to retaliate but that the group's response would be 'real' and 'studied.' Israel accused Hezbollah of a rocket attack that killed 12 children and teens in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Nasrallah denied Hezbollah was responsible.[3]
  • Israel is reportedly preparing for Hezbollah and Iran's response, as the pair also blame Israel for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday, though Israel did not claim the assassination. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin vowed that the US would 'help defend Israel' if it is attacked.[4]
  • Israel said on Thursday that it had received intelligence confirming that Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif was killed in an Israeli strike three weeks ago. Hamas has not confirmed Deif's death.[5]
  • Separately, the Israeli military confirmed that it had targeted Al Jazeera journalist Ismail al-Ghoul, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Wednesday. Israel alleged that he was a member of Hamas' elite Nukhba force.[6]

Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]AL, [3]Al Jazeera, [4]Timesofisrael (a), [5]CNN and [6]Timesofisrael (b).

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. Nonetheless, no one wants to see the situation on the Lebanese border escalate and Washington will continue working toward a diplomatic solution.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. If Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli civilians, it will face an even more destructive response. Day after day, Hezbollah has fired rockets into northern Israel, displacing the population and sowing terror. Israel has shown incredible restraint due to foreign pressure — but it will soon have to act more forcefully to deal with the presence of terrorists on its borders.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel's aggressive posture only demonstrates that it is a rogue state that would rather light the region on fire than stop its genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Netanyahu continues to engage in provocative acts because he has failed to achieve his political and military objectives. While Netanyahu extends the war to ensure his political survival, the US continues to support Israel with a blank check and obfuscate its role in the carnage.
  • Narrative D, as provided by Almayadeen. Hezbollah and the regional resistance's primary goal has always been to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. Nonetheless, Israel's aggression against Beirut and Hamas' political leadership must be responded to.

Predictions