Hezbollah Launches Over 200 Rockets at Israel After Senior Commander Killed

Facts

• Hezbollah fired over 200 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday — its largest attack since clashes erupted on the Lebanese border shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack — reportedly in response to Israel's killing of a senior Hezbollah commander.¹
• Israel confirmed that it launched a strike on Tuesday that killed three Hezbollah fighters as well as senior field commander Taleb Abdallah — the most senior commander in the group to be killed since hostilities began. Lebanese sources reported that Abdallah was the commander of the central region of the border.²
• The rocket fire caused no casualties in Israel but did spark fires in several areas. Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine said the group would escalate its operations against Israel in as a result of Abdallah's killing.²
• On Thursday, a video on social media circulated depicting Israeli forces launching flammable munitions into Lebanon to set fires on the other side of the border. Israeli forces also launched airstrikes on Wednesday and Thursday.³
• The escalation comes as cease-fire negotiations in Gaza move forward after Hamas delivered its official response to a proposal announced by US Pres. Joe Biden last month. The details of Hamas' counter-proposal are still unclear, but negotiations are expected to continue.⁴
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that a cease-fire in Gaza would cool tensions on the Lebanese border, adding that displaced Lebanese and Israelis should be able to return to their homes.⁵

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Reuters, ³Timesofisrael, ⁴BBC News and ⁵Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Ft. This cease-fire proposal will ensure increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, preserve Israel's security, and create a better 'day after' in the enclave without Hamas in power. It will also de-escalate the situation on the Lebanese border. It is unfortunate that Hamas did not respond with a resounding 'yes' to this thoughtful proposal, but the US will continue to work toward closing the gaps.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. As Israel increasingly limits Hamas' ability to threaten Israel via its terror rockets, Hezbollah is attempting to fill the gap. Though Israel's campaign in Gaza continues to drag on, the Israeli military must eventually prioritize the situation on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, and Israel cannot afford to have an Iranian proxy army sitting so comfortably on its northern border.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. It should be clear after almost eight months of grinding brutality that Israel's true goal is to destroy Gaza and starve its people. Israel is simply not interested in committing to a permanent cease-fire, as Israeli officials have made clear that once the hostages are returned they will restart the war. Indeed, the US, aware of Israel's intransigence, refuses to do what is necessary to end Israel's brutal campaign.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war on Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza — not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has surprising capabilities, and it's prepared to defend Lebanon from Israel's genocidal aggression.

Predictions