Hezbollah Fires 200 Rockets into Israel After Commander's Killing

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Facts

• Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah said on Thursday that it launched more than 200 rockets and over 20 drones at 10 Israeli military sites in retaliation for the killing of commander Mohammed Nasser — one of the most senior Hezbollah commanders to allegedly be killed by Israel since clashes began shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack last year.¹
• The Israeli military said it was hitting targets in south Lebanon — including a building in Shihine and infrastructure in the Jabal Blat area — in response to Hezbollah's rocket and drone attack and that it had intercepted and shot down numerous projectiles.²
• The situation has gradually escalated, with civilians being displaced on both sides of the border. Israel has said that it will launch a wider military operation into Lebanon if the security on the border isn't restored. However, Hezbollah has stated that it will end its attacks if there's a cease-fire in Gaza.³
• Meanwhile, cease-fire negotiations made progress on Wednesday after stalling for weeks. Hamas submitted an updated proposal via Qatar and Egypt that Israel reportedly said was constructive. However, an Israeli official has noted that 'serious challenges' remain.⁴
• Al Mayadeen reported that Hamas used more flexible language in key clauses regarding the first phase of the agreement and the transition to the second phase but was still committed to a permanent cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the return of the displaced.⁵
• Last month, Hamas recommended amendments to the proposal, some of which Washington claimed were impractical. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel will not stop fighting until Hamas is destroyed.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Timesofisrael, ³BBC News, ⁴Axios, ⁵The Cradle and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Ft. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Israel wants to make a deal and get its hostages back, but it can't allow Hamas to stay in power. If Hamas is allowed to remain in power in Gaza, the group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Though there are pressures at home and abroad to end the war prematurely, Israel must do what is best for its citizens.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Though this deal, which is nearly identical to earlier proposals that Hamas has already agreed to, must go through, it's too little too late. Israel has massacred over 35K Palestinians in Gaza, yet it has taken months even to approach a deal due to Israeli intransigence. The only reason this war has continued is because of the US' inability to reel Israel in.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.

Predictions