Hamas Considers Latest Cease-Fire Proposal

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Facts

• In a statement, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh said he spoke with Egypt's intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Thursday, and Hamas is considering the most recent Gaza cease-fire proposal with a 'positive spirit.'¹
• The proposal is said to include a six-week cease-fire, the release of 33 hostages, and an Israeli withdrawal after further negotiations establish 'permanent calm.' An unnamed Hamas official said part of the text is too vague, specifically regarding the end of the war.²
• The same official told the Associated Press that Egyptian mediators had privately reassured Hamas that the deal would lead to the complete end of the war. However, Hamas official Osama Hamdan said Wednesday that the group's initial position was 'negative.'²
• Hamdan also said the group's external leadership is still in close contact with leaders Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad al-Deif. Hamdan also said the group's military capabilities 'are still high' and it will withdraw from negotiations if Israel invades Rafah.³
• In Gaza, a spokesperson for the World Food Programme (WFP) said humanitarian access to Gaza has relatively improved, but it's still not enough. Aid entered through the Erez Crossing near Gaza City for the first time since Oct. 7 on Wednesday. The WFP also said it had established four bakeries in northern Gaza.⁴
• Meanwhile, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a bilateral defense agreement, but it would rely on the establishment of calm in Gaza and Israel agreeing to create a pathway for a future Palestinian state.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Associated Press, ³Jerusalem Post, ⁴Al Jazeera and ⁵The Times of Israel.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by NBC. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. But US Pres. Joe Biden's administration is losing its patience with Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu's intransigence, as the humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand. The situation must be remedied and an Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. Biden, worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if he never fully supported this war. But from the beginning, Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.

Predictions