Haley Drops Out of GOP Primary

Facts

• Following her losses to former US Pres. Donald Trump during the Super Tuesday primary elections, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced Wednesday she's suspending her campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.¹
• In a speech in Charleston, S.C., Haley — who lost all but two of the state primaries as of Tuesday — said she 'will no longer be a candidate' but 'will not stop' speaking up for the things she believes in. She also declined to immediately endorse Trump.²
• Haley, who was the US ambassador to the UN under Trump, called on her former boss to 'earn the votes of those in our party who did not support him' in the primaries.³
• Prior to her losses on Super Tuesday, Haley finished third in the Iowa caucuses earlier this year. She lost by just 11% to Trump in the New Hampshire primary but then lost by 20% in her home state of South Carolina.⁴
• Haley was popular with college-educated voters, including in Virginia, where Trump won by 28% but Haley won 81% of the highly educated county of Arlington. She also won the Vermont primary, where she took 78% of the vote in Norwich — one the most highly educated towns in the US.⁵
• After Haley's announcement, Trump called on her supporters to back him and 'join the greatest movement in the history of our nation.'⁶

Sources: ¹USA Today, ²WSJ, ³The New York Times, ⁴New York Post, ⁵Washington Post and ⁶FOX News.

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by National Review. Even with Haley out of the way, it's going to be difficult for Trump to get the 90% of Republican voters he's projected to need to win the general election. Many Haley voters didn't express ill will toward Biden, and they could sway the vote by staying home or supporting the president. Trump has his work cut out for him reuniting the party.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Human Events. Haley stuck around so long because her corporate backers wanted her to put a dent in Trump's effort to return to the White House. But the American people saw through her and knew she was more of a turncoat than a viable alternative. Now the former president has a clear path back to the Oval Office.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. Republicans have made a big mistake. Biden has his flaws, but he beat Trump once and can beat him again. This time around, Biden can take a page from Haley's book in an effort to keep the never-Trump vote from turning to MAGA. For Biden to retain the White House, it'll be important for him to keep up Haley's message that Trump is a dangerous person who could put an end to American democracy.

Predictions