Guatemala: Frontrunner Presidential Candidate Disqualified Ahead of Race

Facts

• The Constitutional Court of Guatemala on Friday blocked the presidential candidacy of dark-horse conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, less than a month ahead of the first round of voting.¹
• The Prosperidad Ciudadana nominee condemned the sentence as an attack against democracy, expressing his hopes that the majority of the Guatemalan people would cast a null vote to force new elections.²
• The decision upholds the ruling issued last week by a lower court judge who suspended Pineda's campaign on allegations that it failed to comply with the rules of the nomination process.³
• Pineda is the third candidate to be declared ineligible to run for Guatemala's top office, with the Constitutional Court previously throwing Roberto Arzú and Thelma Cabrera out of the presidential race. Meanwhile, the future of Edmond Mulet, who is accused of campaigning in advance, is yet to be ruled.⁴
• A score of candidates will contest the election, which kicks off on June 25. If no one wins more than 50% of the ballots, a second round will be held on August 20.⁵
• The CID-Gallup latest poll, completed on May 20, shows that the two-time presidential runner-up and former First Lady Sandra Torres leads the race with 23%, ahead of Mulet and Zury Ríos, the daughter of the genocide-convicted Gen. Efraín Ríos Montt, by two and four points, respectively.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²FOX News, ³Reuters, ⁴The Rio Times, ⁵Le Monde.fr, and ⁶AS/COA.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by InSight Crime. Guatemala's deep-rooted political elite has been swiftly using its clout over the judicial system to thwart anti-corruption figures, with the outsider candidate Pineda being just the latest, but unlikely the last, to be excluded from the presidential race based on legal shenanigans. It's clear that the establishment would rather bring chaos and instability to the country than allow changes in the status quo.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune. Guatemala has indeed been heading toward an illiberal democracy as widespread corruption and politicization erode its democratic institutions — including the once technical Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Yet, it is troublesome to claim that Pineda is among the candidates who are allegedly being targeted by the corrupt political elite, given that his party is backed by the sons of the convicted money launder Manuel Baldizón.