Guatemala: Arévalo Advances to Runoff Against Frontrunner Torre

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Facts

  • On Monday, Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that the conservative former First Lady Sandra Torres and the leftist congressman Bernardo Arévalo will head to a presidential runoff election on August 20 — neither came close to the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round.1
  • With roughly 98% of the tally sheets processed, the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party's Torres had captured some 15% of the votes and the Semilla Party's Arévalo 12%. Abstention was at around 40% of the 9.3M citizens called to vote — two percent up from the 2019 elections.2
  • Candidate for the party of outgoing Pres. Alejandro Giammattei, Manuel Conde, finished third while establishment candidates Edmond Mulet and Zury Ríos placed fifth and sixth, respectively. At least four candidates were barred from running pre-Election, including then-frontrunner Carlos Pineda.3
  • The outcome was unexpected, as opinion polls failed to suggest that Bernardo Arévalo — son of the former president Juan José Arévalo — would make the second round. He replaced the disqualified anti-corruption campaigner and former attorney general Thelma Aldana as Semilla's candidate.4
  • Sunday's vote was marked by a notable amount of blank or nullified ballots, as voters continue to express skepticism that the next government can address ongoing problems such as unemployment, security, and corruption.5
  • Guatemala, alongside its Central American neighbors El Salvador and Nicaragua, has allegedly been facing democratic decay in recent years, with activists denouncing attacks on the media as well as the forced exile of judges and prosecutors.6

Sources: 1Washington Post, 2TeleSUR English, 3New York Times, 4Reuters, 5Al Jazeera, and 6Guardian.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Americas Quarterly. The surprising success of Arévalo in the first round reflects the resounding backlash from the Guatemalan nation to a political establishment that has promoted ignominious interventions and vile plans in efforts to maintain power. The political class cannot manipulate the voting public anymore — the people want disruption within the system.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It was known well before Election Day that Guatemala's establishment would not allow any candidate threatening the interests of the country's corrupt political elite to run for president — the fact that Arévalo advanced to the second round must be considered with skepticism rather than optimism. It is very likely that either he is not a threat to the status quo, or that he will be prevented from taking office.