GOP Senator Says Ukraine Must 'Cede' Land to Russia

Facts

• Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) on Sunday said that it was in "America's best interest" to push Ukraine "to cede some territory to the Russians" and end the war, questioning, "What is $61B going to accomplish that $100B hasn't." ¹
• Vance's comments follow Pulitzer Prize winner US journalist Seymour Hersh's claim that a secret Ukraine-Russia peace deal — under which Moscow could allow Kyiv to join NATO provided Crimea is allowed to remain with Russia and elections are held in Moscow-annexed regions — is on the cards. ²
• Vance's comments also come as support for funding Ukraine's resistance has waned in Congress. However, national security spokesman John Kirby said Monday that he still "fully" expects the Biden administration to announce "additional security assistance before the end of the month." ³
• Previously, Secretary of State Antony Blinken had argued that not sending more money to Ukraine would only benefit US adversaries in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran and allow Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin "to move forward with impunity" and eventually "[go] after a NATO country." ⁴
• Meanwhile, NATO countries, including the UK and Norway, have announced the Maritime Capability Coalition to make Ukraine's navy more compatible with the US and NATO and help commercial ships bypass Russia's blockade in the Black Sea. ⁵
• As Western nations look to bolster Ukraine's maritime capabilities, Putin unveiled two new nuclear-powered submarines on Monday — named the Krasnoyarsk and Emperor Alexander the Third — he said would soon begin patrolling the Pacific. ³

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Seymour Hersh, ³CNBC, ⁴The Hill, and ⁵Business Insider.

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. While politicians calling for an end to Ukraine aid are correct that Kyiv will have to give up land, what they don't understand is that Putin will want more territory than the select number of regions currently talked about. Such a concession would also show other authoritarian regimes, like Beijing, that the strong can always bully the weak — a precedent that will put Taiwan at risk of Beijing and former Soviet states at the will of Putin or whoever takes his place when he dies. This is a war for the future of the world, not just Ukraine.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT internacional. As the pro-war establishment watches its proxy war in Ukraine come to an embarrassing end, those at the top, namely Pres. Biden, are showing the world what they've truly cared about all along — fighting Russia. To garner support for such a foolish war, Washington has deployed fear tactics like saying Putin will go on to attack other Western nations. If this war does expand beyond Ukrainian borders, the world must know that it was Washington, not Moscow, who provoked it.
• Narrative C, as provided by Wall Street Journal. The war with Russia is in a stalemate. The Ukrainian counteroffensive hasn't met expectations, war fatigue is growing, and Ukrainians face a bleak winter. Kyiv's refusal to negotiate with Moscow has only caused the country heavy battlefield casualties, and it would take a massive technological leap to break the status quo. While the US stays committed to supporting Ukraine, now is the right time to start thinking about how the war can be brought to a close.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 0.1% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.