Germany Set to Deploy Permanent Brigade in Lithuania

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Facts

  • On Monday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius signed a "historic" agreement with his Lithuanian counterpart Arvydas Anušauskasto to permanently station a German brigade of about 4.8K soldiers in Lithuania on the Russian border by 2027. 1
  • According to Pistorius, most units will arrive between 2025 and 2026, adding the soldiers and their families will be provided with "attractive conditions" such as housing, aircraft connections, kindergartens, and German-language schools. 2
  • While Pistorius claimed the move is crucial to reinforce NATO's presence on its eastern flank with Russia, which is the "duty of Germany to protect," Anušauskasto argued that Lithuania needs to be ready for the "worst scenarios" because Moscow remains "the main threat". 3
  • In line with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, the two ministers emphasized that their nations would "defend each other and every centimeter of alliance territory at all times" as they were committed to protecting their freedom and democracy. 4
  • The brigade will include two combat battalions from the German states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria, while a third battalion will be a multinational NATO battle unit. In addition, there will be administrative staff, medical professionals, logisticians, and communications specialists. 5
  • Maintaining a brigade similar to the one being sent to Lithuania costs between €25-€30M ($27-33M) per month in Germany. Meanwhile, Lithuania will spend about 0.3% of its gross domestic product building the physical infrastructure for the battalions over the next few years. 6

Sources: 1US News & World Report, 2Firstpost, 3The Kyiv Independent, 4Deutsche Welle, 5Aussiedlerbote.de and 6 Politico.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. It was Russia's invasion of Ukraine that precipitated Germany's decision to station a brigade permanently in Lithuania, about 100 kilometers (62 mi) from the Russian border, and help fortify NATO's eastern flank. Germany hasn't had a permanent military presence abroad since World War II. However, Berlin now sees how urgently it has to establish this force given the changing security landscape in Europe. If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it might go after the Baltic states next.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Modern Diplomacy. Establishing this military force in Lithuania might not go as smoothly as Berlin may hope for. It will take some convincing to get thousands of German soldiers to volunteer for permanent service in Lithuania in addition to generous bonuses and other tax-free benefits. Moreover, considering the history, it seems improbable that the local populace will welcome Germans with open arms. This attempt to bolster NATO's eastern flank is fraught with challenges.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 27% chance there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.