Germany Becomes Key Issue in Upcoming Polish Election

Facts

• Ahead of Poland's upcoming general election, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has accused Germany of attempting to influence and intervene in Polish politics and policy.¹
• The Oct. 15 vote will place PiS leader and deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski against the opposition Civic Coalition alliance's co-founder and former president of the European Council Donald Tusk.²
• Kaczynski alleges that Germany wishes to 'embed' Tusk into public office to 'privatize Polish assets,' while Poland's Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro claims Tusk is pursuing 'German interests, not Polish ones.'³
• Separately, the country's Deputy Foreign Minister Arkadiusz Mularczyk said on Tuesday that 'compensations, reparations, [and] restitutions' were still required by Germany for the 'wrongs wrought' on the Polish state during WWII.⁴
• According to a 2023 German Polish Barometer poll, 47% of Polish citizens believe that good relations exist between the two nations — down from 72% in 2020.¹
• Meanwhile, an IBRiS poll published Wednesday suggests support for PiS — which has governed Poland since 2015 — is at 35%, compared to 27% backing for the Civic Coalition alliance.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Euronews, ³Guardian, ⁴Tvpworld and ⁵Dw.Com.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. In the last eight years, PiS has disintegrated relations with Germany and the EU at the expense of Poland's future. Despite concerns surrounding dangerous rhetoric, an electoral stalemate and a subsequent race to form a coalition is Poland's most likely outcome on Oct. 15. A minority victory for the Civic Coalition could hopefully see the reversal of several hazardous trends for Polish democracy and international relations witnessed in recent years.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by PolandDaily24.com. Poland will no longer allow Germany to influence and interfere within Polish society in the manner that Europe has accepted for decades. Previously, Polish politicians have acted as puppets for German national interests despite the horrendous pain the country has caused in the past. Poland will continue to stand up for itself, breaking the cycle of servitude to external European powers.

Predictions