German Military Document: NATO Preparing for Russian Attack in 2025

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Facts

  • NATO and Germany are preparing for a possible war with Russia in 2025, according to a German Defense Ministry document obtained by German publication BILD. The classified planning document outlines a hypothetical series of events from February 2024 to the spring of next year, predicting that Russia will attack NATO's eastern flank in Lithuania and NATO's subsequent response.1
  • The document forecasts that Russia will mobilize 200K troops in February and that it will launch a new offensive in Ukraine this spring. It goes on to predict that, due to insufficient Western arms, Ukraine's military will be defeated by June, before Russia wages a campaign of cyber-espionage and other means of hybrid warfare on Western countries, namely the Baltic States.1
  • It then forecasts that Russia will use ethnic clashes in the Baltic States to justify holding large-scale military exercises in Belarus. It goes on to predict that Russia will further escalate tensions by deploying additional forces and medium-range missiles in the region of Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania.2
  • The document's forecasts culminate in Russia exploiting instability in the US government following 2024 elections to launch attacks on Lithuania's 'Suwałki Gap' region — a land corridor connecting Kaliningrad and Belarus. In December 2024, it predicts a 'border conflict' and 'riots with many victims.' Finally, it predicts NATO will meet to agree on deterrence measures in May 2025, resulting in NATO deploying a fighting force of 300K troops, including 30K Germans, to the region.1
  • Responding to BILD, Germany's defense ministry insisted that 'looking at different scenarios, even extremely unlikely ones, is part of its military routine.'1
  • The leak follows a German announcement last month stating that it will station a permanent 'combat-ready' brigade of 4.8K troops in Lithuania from 2027. It will be the first permanent deployment of German troops outside the country since World War II.3

Sources: 1UKRINFORM, 2Ukrainska Pravda and 3US News & World Report.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Policy. Although the US and its Western partners are doing everything they can to prevent Russian aggression in Ukraine, they must prepare for the scenario that Russia will hit somewhere they're not expecting: the Suwałki Gap, near the borders of Poland and Lithuania. This is the next logical step of Putin's imperial ambitions.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. It was NATO, not Russia, that announced a buildup of military forces in Lithuania. This escalation threatens Russia's Kaliningrad region, therefore Russia must respond accordingly to ensure its people are protected. As always, the US and the West are carrying out provocations and then blaming Russia for the consequences.

Predictions