German Chancellor Urges 'Firewall' Around AfD

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Facts

  • On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged all mainstream democratic parties to try to form stable governments in Thuringia and Saxony without the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), to try to keep the party away from any political influence in what has been characterized as a 'firewall.'[1][2]
  • This followed Sunday's regional election in Thuringia and Saxony, eastern Germany, where the AfD party received 32.8% and 30.6% of the votes, respectively.[3]
  • The AfD and its controversial state leader Björn Höcke's victory in Thuringia was the first victory of a party considered far-right in a German state election since World War II.[4]
  • The AfD's gains are a setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, as it received close to one-third of the vote — nine points ahead of the conservative CDU party and considerably ahead of Germany's three ruling parties.[5]
  • The leftist populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also made significant gains, outperformed Scholz's coalition, and came in third with 11.5 - 15.6% of the vote. BSW was formed only eight months ago.[6]
  • Recent polls suggest the AfD would be the Bundestag's second-largest party if federal elections were held today.[7]

Sources: [1]Barrons, [2]BBC News (a), [3]Guardian, [4]France 24, [5]BBC News (b), [6]Reuters and [7]CNN.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Dw.Com. The election results in Thuringia and Saxony are a cause of anxiety for the Social Democrats and their coalition allies. However, the AfD must be prevented from gaining any significant political power. The AfD poses a threat to Germany, undermining the economy and dividing society. All democratic parties must work together to build stable governments free of right-wing extremism.
  • Narrative B, as provided by BBC News. The AfD is the people's party for Thuringia and the eastern part of the country. The people have given the AfD a strong mandate to govern. Mr. Scholz is now trying to weaken the democratic participation of a large section of the population. Any attempts to block or freeze out the AfD are manifestly undemocratic and should be ignored. This is a dangerously autocratic move.
  • Narrative C, as provided by POLITICO. Anti-establishment parties are changing the German landscape. The conservative CDU has stated it would not rule with the extreme right, making it difficult to form a new government in Thuringia. In order to keep the far right out, the CDU will require left-wing parties on the left, Die Linke or Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, to create a government coalition, which is improbable.

Predictions