Gaza: Netanyahu Vows to Enter Rafah

Facts

• After vowing Sunday that Israeli forces — regardless of the status of a potential hostage deal — would eventually enter the Gaza border town of Rafah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel has a plan to evacuate civilians. US officials have said the US would only support a push into Rafah that entailed a plan to avoid civilian casualties.¹
• Meanwhile, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced Monday he will resign from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which partially controls the West Bank, as the US pushes to reform the PA so it can potentially administer a future Palestinian state.²
• Shtayyeh cited the 'unprecedented escalation in the West Bank and Jerusalem,' and the war in Gaza, as primary reasons for his resignation. The West Bank has seen a surge in violence since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, with Israel killing around 400 people, according to the Palestinian health ministry.³
• In addition, Israel on Monday launched its deepest strikes into Lebanon since the war began, targeting the town of Baalbek in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley with an airstrike that killed at least two Hezbollah members. Hezbollah said it retaliated by firing 60 short-range rockets at Israeli forces in the Golan Heights.⁴
• Israel said the strikes were in retaliation for Hezbollah's downing of an Israeli drone flying over south Lebanon. On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed to expand Israeli operations against Hezbollah even if a cease-fire is reached in Gaza.⁴
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed nearly 30K people, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, with over 1M displaced Palestinians taking refuge in Rafah. The official Israeli death toll from Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁵

Sources: ¹FOX News, ²Reuters, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴Associated Press and ⁵The Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CBS. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, Netanyahu is going too far, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises to compromise on a needed truce. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. Israel wants nothing more than to end the war and get the hostages back. However, Iranian-backed groups made the error of believing that Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist massacre was an opportunity to establish new 'rules of engagement' with Israel, displacing the country's northern communities. This status quo is unacceptable to Israel, and — as Israeli officials have indicated — a cease-fire in Gaza has no impact on the Lebanese border.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Because Israeli forces are committing daily massacres in the Gaza Strip, the international community must put more pressure on Israel and the US to accept a permanent cease-fire. Diverging politically even from its allies, the US is effectively isolating itself from its Arab partners and the rest of the world in terms of its support for Israel's slaughter. To get the hostages back, Israel must withdraw from Gaza and end the bloodshed.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Even in the face of regular Israeli massacres in south Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, the Lebanese and Palestinian people only grow more resolute in their firm opposition to Israeli aggression. The US must understand that supporting Israel's crimes will only lead to more escalation in the region. Hezbollah's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, but if the US and Israel continue to disregard international law, the resistance may be forced to expand its operations.

Predictions