Gaza: Biden Hopeful for Cease-Fire, Regional Officials Skeptical

Facts

• US Pres. Joe Biden said on Monday that he's hopeful that a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas will be agreed upon within a week, saying that Israel would pause its looming operation into Rafah (in which over 1.2M Palestinians are taking refuge on the Egyptian border) before Ramadan.¹
• In contrast to Biden's comments, regional officials expressed apprehension on Tuesday, with a Qatari official saying that none of the remaining issues have been solved. Hamas, which is weighing a proposal hammered out in Paris last week, said many 'big gaps' remain.²
• In a Tuesday statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he intended to 'curb' pressure 'to end the war before its time' and build support for Israel. An Israeli official said earlier on Tuesday that Netanyahu was 'surprised' by Biden's comments.³
• Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas accepted the resignation of his Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh on Tuesday, asking him to stay on as a caretaker until a replacement is appointed. The US has called for a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern Gaza after the war.⁴
• On Tuesday, the US urged Netanyahu to take steps to bolster the Palestinian economy and address the PA's financial crisis in the West Bank. The US has warned that, if the PA collapsed, the West Bank would descend into disorder and violence, heightening the regional conflict.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed nearly 30K people, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Reuters, ³ABC News, ⁴The Times of Israel, ⁵Axios and ⁶The Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CBS. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, Netanyahu is going too far, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises to compromise on a needed truce. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but Pres. Joe Biden needs to take a step back from his criticisms of Israel's Prime Minister. Netanyahu is a complicated figure, and Biden has a re-election campaign to worry about, which has created understandable tension between the two. However, Biden must understand that he should be pressuring Hamas terrorists — who have not made a single positive step in finding a compromise — instead of Israel. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to bad faith tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Predictions