Gallup: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

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Facts

  • A Gallup report released this week said that nearly all measures of the political environment for the 2024 US presidential election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.[1][2]
  • This comes as 1,007 US adults were polled between Sept. 3-15 about 10 indicators that either have moderate to strong links to past presidential elections outcomes or are related to current perceptions of the two parties.[1][3]
  • Those include 'party identification and leaning' and which party is 'better able to handle [the] most important problem,' which have been strongly connected to previous outcomes. Republicans beats Democrats in both — 48% to 45% and 46% to 41%, respectively.[1][3]
  • The poll further found that economic confidence, national satisfaction, and presidential job approval are low, that most Americans want the government to do less, and that Republicans are seen as better able to keep America safe from global threats and keep America prosperous.[1][4]
  • This comes as American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman dubbed the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential elections, used his 'Keys to the White House' method to predict earlier this month that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.[5]
  • As of Tuesday, ABC's FiveThirtyEight put Harris' chances of winning at 57%. According to the RealClear poll averages with 'no toss-up states,' Harris would win 276 Electoral College votes to Trump's 262 if the election were held last week.[6][7]

Sources: [1]Gallup.com, [2]The Hill, [3]Miami Herald, [4]The Washington Times, [5]Verity, [6]RealClear Polling and [7]FiveThirtyEight.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. This poll confirms that Americans don't want four more years of the disastrous Biden-Harris agenda and that the presidential election is Trump's to lose. Republicans haven't had such an advantage in decades, and not even the liberal media can ignore that.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Washington Post. Even if Gallup figures are correct, that's quite a logical jump to claim that these numbers indicate that the election environment favors Republicans. Several other polls put Harris ahead of Trump, and — perhaps most importantly — the average voter also expects her to win.

Predictions