Gabon: Military Junta Announces Elections for August 2025

Facts

• Gabon's military rulers, who ousted Pres. Ali Bongo Ondimba in August after a disputed election, announced on Monday plans to hold elections in August 2025, based on a timetable that initially calls for a national dialogue next year.¹
• Presidential and parliamentary elections will be conducted as part of an 'indicative' transition to a civilian government that must be approved in April 2024 at a national conference involving all the country’s 'vital actors,' a spokesman for the military government said live on state TV.²
• Under the proposed roadmap for restoring civilian rule, the interim parliament will be transformed into a constituent assembly in early June 2024. By the end of that year, a draft constitution is expected to be put to a referendum.³
• Since the deposition of Ali Bongo — who had ruled Gabon since 2009, extending his family's dynasty to 55 years — on claims of electoral fraud and widespread corruption, the West African nation has been led by a self-proclaimed transitional government under Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema.⁴
• While members of the military junta are reportedly barred from running in the proposed election, the transitional charter allows Gen. Oligui Nguema to do so. Yet, it remains unclear whether he intends to do so.⁵
• The US officially stated last month that the military takeover in Gabon had been a coup, a conclusion that legally requires Washington to end non-humanitarian assistance to the oil-rich country. The State Department has called on the interim government to take concrete measures to establish democratic rule in order to resume aid.⁶

Sources: ¹DW, ²Africa News, ³New Vision Official, ⁴EWN, ⁵BBC News and ⁶France 24.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by VOA. Monday's announcement of a roadmap to return to constitutional order in Gabon is good news. The US welcomes that Nguema appears to be honoring his commitment to restore civilian rule. If Libreville makes further progress toward democracy, the suspension of aid might be reconsidered. However, in addition to democratic elections, the military leaders must also address the country's economic and social woes. Washington will follow the process closely and continue to stand in solidarity with the Gabonese people in their struggle for democracy.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. While the so-called 'international community' demands elections in Gabon, it often ignores the origins of military coups in Africa. Ali Bongo's rule was by no means democratic and his overthrow was supported by large parts of the population frustrated by the lack of any democratic dividend. Former colonial powers such as France are also playing a role by supporting dubious elections and incompetent leaders in order to maintain their influence. People want democracy, but most of all, they hope for an improvement in their living conditions.

Predictions