French Elections: New Popular Front Wins Most Seats

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Facts

  • The New Popular Front ('NFP') coalition on Sunday won the most seats in the second round of France's snap parliamentary elections, falling short of an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.1
  • Formed after Pres. Emmanuel Macron called the snap vote last month, the NFP won 182 seats, while Macron's Ensemble coalition and Marine Le Pen's National Rally secured 168 and 143 seats respectively.2
  • The French president is tasked with appointing a prime minister from the party that won the most seats, which is usually the ruling party. Sunday's results suggest a coalition government would rule the country.3
  • Though Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tendered his resignation on Monday, Macron rejected it, asking him to stay in office 'for the time being in order to ensure the stability of the country.'4
  • The NFP is a loose alliance of left-wing parties, including Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the France Unbowed party.5
  • Before Sunday's vote, over 200 candidates from the NFP opted to strategically withdraw to avoid dividing the anti-National Rally electorate in constituencies where three or more candidates were running.6

Sources: 1France 24, 2Le Monde.fr, 3CNN, 4Dw.Com, 5Al Jazeera and 6Euronews.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Bloomberg. After being harshly criticized for announcing snap elections, Macron's gamble to call on the French electorate to decide for or against the values of the Fifth Republic has largely paid off. Yes, Sunday's winners now face the complex task of forming a coalition, but the key message remains that the EU's second-largest economy decided to defend its democracy against the far right. However, the French citizenry must remain vigilant, as the National Rally will use every populist tactic to pressure the Republican front.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Spectator (UK). This disappointing outcome is the result of anti-National Rally propaganda by the so-called 'Republican front' and tactical power games by Macron's alliance. Now, France is facing the formation of a coalition of disparate parties for which the French constitution was not designed. This means that the Fifth Republic is heading for political instability and deadlock, with major implications for Europe and the financial markets. The stage is set for a National Rally victory in 2027.

Predictions