France: 'Coordinated' Arson Attacks Disrupt Rail Network Ahead of Olympic Games

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Facts

  • A series of what French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called 'coordinated' arson attacks broke out on Friday on three of France's four high-speed rail lines, disrupting the travel plans of over 1M weekend commuters ahead of the opening ceremony for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.[1]
  • Attal called the fires 'acts of sabotage,' with prosecutors in Paris opening a criminal investigation. The chief executive officer of SNCF, a French rail company, said that the fires were mostly set in pipes that contained cables needed for signaling.[2]
  • Service on one line has been running at normal levels while others have only seen partial resumption, with SNCF saying that repairs will need to continue over the weekend. Eurostar has said that journeys will be 1.5 hours longer due to the disruption, while SNCF advised travelers to postpone travel plans.[3]
  • France's TGV trains can travel at speeds of up to 300 km/hr (186 mph) and transverses through mostly rural areas. The areas affected include the Atlantic line, which travels to Brittany and southwest France, as well as near the intersection of the routes heading to Metz and Strasbourg.[4]
  • SNCF has said overnight workers reported unauthorized personnel on the tracks in central France, with France's intelligence services saying that perpetrators and motivations are currently unknown. The SNCF head said that the sabotaged cables carry safety information for conductors or control the train's engine.[5]
  • One additional attack was also foiled before damage was caused. The attacks in total have not affected the opening ceremony of the games. Security at the Olympics has been a top concern, and tens of thousands of police and military personnel have been deployed nationwide.[1]

Sources: [1]New York Times, [2]Associated Press, [3]Euronews, [4]BBC News and [5]Le Monde.fr.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Foreignpolicy. France is presiding over one of the most dangerous Games in Olympic history. Groups seeking to avenge Israel's war in Gaza, Jihadists, Russian operatives, and climate agitators make up just some of the actors who are being initially accused of plotting against the Games in a dazzling matrix of threat vectors. These plots are increasing in frequency, and today a key vulnerability in France was exposed. Let's hope this is not a harbinger of things to come in Paris.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Vox. There is every indication that the Games in Paris will be safe, and France's model for dealing with multivariate threats could be the exemplar for years to come. France has deployed tens of thousands of personnel and a new surveillance system powered by artificial intelligence that will identify and predict potential dangers. While the media will accentuate the negative before any big event, France is putting into practice hard lessons regarding counterterrorism.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by metaculus.com. There is a 17% chance that a terrorist attack will occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.