Former Thai PM Thaksin Will Be Freed Early

Facts

• Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is expected to be freed — potentially by this weekend. This comes six months after his return from 15 years in self-imposed exile and subsequent arrest.¹
• He was sentenced to eight years in prison for abuse of power and corruption charges last August, but his jail term was reduced to one year as Thailand's king granted him a royal pardon.²
• Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced Tuesday that the 74-year-old billionaire has been granted parole 'in line with the corrections department regulations.' Due to an undisclosed health condition, Thaksin spent the past six months in hospital detention.³
• According to Thai laws, detainees aged 70 and over suffering from serious illnesses can be granted early release from prison if they have served at least six months or one-third of their sentence.⁴
• Ousted by the military in 2006 and convicted in absentia in 2008, Thaksin is reportedly among 930 inmates who were granted amnesty. His younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was also ousted from office by the military in 2014 after winning the 2011 election.⁵
• Following the 2023 election, his Pheu Thai party entered a coalition with its former military rivals to prevent the progressive Move Forward from forming a government, naming Pheu Thai's Srettha prime minister just hours after Thaksin returned to the country.⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Al Jazeera, ³Reuters, ⁴Time, ⁵Financial Times and ⁶CNN.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Diplomat. Thaksin Shinawatra remains one of Thailand's most divisive political figures. His release from prison at a tense political time shows that the Thai elite isn't committed to democracy. When rival forces join hands to release a populist leader accused of severe human rights abuses, it's clear that the country's powerful conservative and royalist establishment wants to protect the status quo at any cost.
• Narrative B, as provided by Nikkei Asia. Thaksin's release isn't politically motivated — he had met the criteria for parole as he's over 70, suffers from chronic illness, and has completed his six months. He represents the people at the grassroots level, which is why Thaksin has been a central figure in Thai politics for two decades. Now that he's free, Thaksin could serve the country again, balance urban and rural interests, and bring long-sought political stability.

Predictions