Fears in Sudan Over Confrontation Between Army, Paramilitary Force

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Facts

  • Sudan's army has warned of a potential confrontation between itself and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, as the two forces continue the dispute that has so far delayed a planned transition towards democracy within the state.1
  • The warning comes as the RSF, headed by General Hamdan Dagalo, has mobilized its forces in the state's capital of Khartoum among other cities. The army released a statement saying that such actions were a 'clear violation of law.' On Twitter, the paramilitary group claimed that it was acting within the 'framework of the law' and in 'full coordination' with Sudan's armed forces.2
  • Local media has claimed that the paramilitary deployed troops along the state's northern border and has attempted to build a military base there. Videos from social media also reportedly show what seem to be RSF armed vehicles being transported to Khartoum.3
  • The army has stated that it has attempted to find 'peaceful solutions' to its dispute with the RSF. Current tensions have arisen due to the intended integration of the RSF into the military, a key factor of the internationally-backed agreement for Sudan to transition towards a civilian-led state. A lack of consensus on how this would occur functionally has led to repeated delays of the deal.4
  • The army and the RSF overthrew Sudan's long-ruling Omar Hassan al-Bashir in 2019, before engaging in another military-led coup in October 2021 as the state turned towards a democratic framework.5
  • The current agreement is yet to be enforced and entails a two-year civilian-led transition to elections. The RSF currently operates under a special law and has its own chain of command, containing tens of thousands of members.5

Sources: 1Reuters, 2Al Jazeera, 3Associated Press, 4Independent and 5France 24.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Al mayadeen english. Multiple time bombs stand in the way of Sudan's democratic transformation. Democratic political forces are divided over how to proceed given the outsized presence of the army and paramilitary groups, and marginal incitement on either side could lead to an explosive conflict between the army and the RSF. The issue of integration between these groups has already become a huge sticking point, so it must be questioned what can realistically be expected of Sudan's future when even more contentious topics will be approached.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Dabanga radio tv online. Tensions are currently high, and Sudan is clearly going through a historical and dangerous turn. However, there is still optimism that a final agreement and the transition to democracy will indeed occur. Organizations are continuing to work with the military and the paramilitary to solve this last pending issue concerning Sudan's future.