FBI: Violent US Crime Dropped Sharply in Early 2024

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Facts

• Statistics released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) purport that violent crime across the US dropped by 15.2% during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.¹
• The decline was mostly driven by more than the 25% drop in cases of rape and murder reported, while aggravated assault fell by 12.5% and robberies by 17.8%.²
• According to FBI data, overall crime in cities with a population of over 1M also declined by 11%.³
• Cities in which the homicide rate dropped over 40% include New Orleans, Boston, Seattle, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. If the trend continues, 2024 could reportedly see the biggest one-year decline on record.⁴
• A Gallup poll last November suggested that perceptions of crime among Americans continue to remain high — with over 75% of respondents stating that crime had increased nationwide.³

Sources: ¹Federal Bureau of Investigation, ²Guardian, ³ABC News and ⁴CNN.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Newsweek. These numbers only tell part of the story about crime in America, as they are based on voluntary reporting from police departments. The main issue in this country remains dismal arrest and prosecution records from progressive district attorney's offices, which leads to emboldened criminals and gamified statistics.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by The Hill. The perception of the GOP being 'tough on crime' doesn't match the reality, as this steep drop reverses the spikes that occurred under the Trump administration. Trump's attacks on law enforcement agencies and his personal attempts to flout the law are a testament to his lack of care regarding law and order.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by The Marshall Project. There's a technical issue that must be accounted for when reporting US crime statistics. The FBI's transition to a new crime reporting system for local jurisdictions has led to major data gaps — including in New York City and Los Angeles. Accordingly, it's actually unclear if crime nationwide has gone up, gone down, or stayed relatively the same. This data gap must be rectified in order to give the public the information it deserves — and to defend against bad faith political arguments on both sides.

Predictions