FBI Seizes Polymarket CEO's Phone

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Facts

  • The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Wednesday morning conducted a search at Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home, where it confiscated his phone and electronic devices.[1][2]
  • The search is reportedly connected to a Justice Department (DOJ) investigation into whether the online betting market illegally accepted trades from US users.[3]
  • Polymarket, which is currently unavailable in the US except through VPN workarounds, accurately forecasted Republican Pres.-elect Donald Trump's victory against Democratic candidate Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.[4][5]
  • The 26-year-old Coplan, who was not arrested, last week appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box discussing how Polymarket's predictions proved more accurate than traditional polling methods.[6][7]
  • Polymarket on Election Day showed Trump with a 58.6% chance of winning. One French bettor, with the alias Théo, reportedly earned more than $85M.[8][9]
  • This comes as the platform is currently also facing scrutiny from French gambling regulators who are ensuring compliance with domestic laws.[10]

Sources: [1]New York Times, [2]New York Post, [3]Reuters, [4]Verge, [5]USA Today, [6]CNBC (a), [7]CNBC (b), [8]Business Insider, [9]FOX News and [10]Bloomberg.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. It's obvious that this raid was a bit of political theater by the Biden/Harris admin., which is sour over Harris' loss and is buying into liberal media reports accusing Polymarket of rigging its odds for Trump. The FBI could've easily asked for Coplan's devices without an attack against the CEO of a company that's providing a public good that helps people better learn about world events.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by The Daily Beast. It's chic in our current environment for anyone under investigation by a government agency to claim a political reason for the probe. But there have been studies showing 'wash trading' — the repeated buying and selling of an asset to inflate its value — was taking place in the leadup to the election. If Polymarket did nothing wrong, Coplan should cooperate with the authorities.

Predictions