Ex-US President Donald Trump Indicted by NY Grand Jury

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Facts

• On Thursday, a New York grand jury indicted former president Donald Trump over hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign, making him the first former US president to face criminal charges.¹
• According to documents filed in Los Angeles Federal Court, Michael Cohen — Trump's former personal lawyer and fixer — signed a non-disclosure agreement with Daniels to hide her consensual sexual encounter with Trump in 2006 in exchange for a $130k payment. The encounter took place in the year after Trump married his current wife Melania.²
• The Manhattan District Attorney's office has reportedly contacted Trump's lawyers to coordinate his surrender for arraignment on 'a Supreme Court indictment, which remains under seal.'³
• However, Trump is expected to turn himself in prior to his arraignment, appear in court on Tuesday, and be processed, including supplying fingerprints and mug shots.⁴
• The indictment comes as Trump faces legal hurdles in multiple potential criminal cases, including an investigation into alleged illegal meddling by the former president and his allies in the 2020 election in Georgia, which he lost to Joe Biden.⁵

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Reuters, ³CNN, ⁴Washington Post and ⁵CBS.

Narratives

• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Breitbart. Donald Trump is a victim of a Democratic witch hunt to suppress his influence and reclaim the presidency. Democrats have successfully weaponized the criminal justice system, which is now focused on political vengeance and punishing a political opponent instead of keeping Americans safe. This is not an indictment of a crime, it is an indictment of a failed nation.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by New york times. While it is not illegal to silence someone so as to protect your reputation and marriage, covering up the action by falsifying business records is a criminal offense. The indictment is a testament to the fact that no one is above the law, no matter how powerful they are. Alleged breaches of campaign finance law carried out by the Trump campaign also deserve to be taken seriously.
• Narrative C, as provided by Newsweek. This indictment has set the stage for a 2024 presidential contest unlike any other. Being charged with — or found guilty of — a crime does not disqualify the 45th president of the United States from running for office again. An indictment may even make Trump more popular, since he is an expert at portraying himself as an anti-establishment figure against his opponents' weight. This development alone will not hand Trump victory in 2024, but it does lay the ground for an unpredictable presidential contest.

Predictions