EU Likely to Agree Aid for Ukraine Next Week, Latvia Leader Says

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Facts

• EU leaders are moving towards agreeing a €50B ($54.1B) military aid package for Ukraine next week, Latvian leader Edgars Rinkēvičs said on Friday.¹
• After Hungary blocked a similar EU weapons package last month, Rinkēvičs said that agreement would be reached either in a deal with all 27-member states, or via a 'different mechanism' if unanimity isn't achieved. 'But one thing is very clear,' he added. 'Ukraine needs that money ... the European Union must deliver.'¹
• Despite the comments, according to a report published in Bloomberg just hours earlier, sources said Hungary has indicated willingness to drop its opposition to the agreement if certain stipulations are met, with Budapest telling EU ambassadors that Hungary will not obstruct the will of the consensus.²
• Nonetheless, underscoring the tensions, a report in Politico on Friday cited a number of EU officials who said that if Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked another agreement for Ukraine aid, some countries would be prepared to invoke the EU's so-called Article 7, which could strip Hungary of its voting rights.³
• In related news, on Thursday Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced via X that Kyiv had formally begun the screening process preceding potential future membership of the EU. On the same day, GOP senator John Thune commented that negotiations over a deal including aid for Ukraine have reached critical difficulties in the US Senate.⁴

Sources: ¹BNN, ²UKRINFORM, ³POLITICO and ⁴CNBC.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The far-right, pro-Russia Viktor Orbán has repeatedly blocked measures agreed upon by the rest of the EU. Now his antics are threatening to leave Ukraine, an ally and key partner, without basic supplies and ammunition. The EU is right to consider removing Hungary's voting rights to, at the very least, make the country reconsider its position.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Hungary Today. Hungary has stated that it will not stand in the way of the EU's desire to send additional military aid to Ukraine. However, it cannot actively endorse the position, and has made clear its concern that the EU is continuing to pursue a wrong-headed policy that will only cause more harm and devastation.

Predictions