EU Elections: Parliament Shifts Right, France Calls Snap Vote

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Facts

• Voters have given a boost to right-leaning parties in the European Parliament elections, as projections suggest that the mainstream center-right is on track to win most seats, while nationalist parties have made significant gains.¹
• Based on provisional results and exit polls, the European People's Party (EPP) has gained 10 new seats to continue to be the largest grouping in the legislature with 186 members of the European Parliament (MEPs).²
• The two other groups — the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe (RE) — remain the second and third largest with 134 and 79 seats, respectively, despite losing ground compared to the last elections.³
• The Conservative and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) — which combined are set to secure 131 seats — have pushed the Greens from fourth to sixth place, with Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Hungary's Fidesz winning 15 and 10 seats, respectively.⁴
• European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen has said that she would contact the 'big political families' that had formed her centrist platform — EPP, S&D, and RE — as she needs the support of at least 361 MEPs to be re-elected.⁵
• Meanwhile, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the National Assembly and called for early legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 after his party suffered a heavy defeat in EU elections to Marine Le Pen's National Rally.⁶

Sources: ¹Wsj, ²FT, ³New York Times, ⁴POLITICO, ⁵Guardian and ⁶France 24.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by CNBC. It's concerning that far-right Eurosceptic parties have polled well in the EU elections because now — and for the next five years — they are likely to pressure centrist parties on key issues such as immigration, climate change, and defense. Hopefully, internal disputes between them will prevail and prevent a bigger impact on these policies.
• Right narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). The right has grown popular in these EU elections precisely because Europeans are tired of mass immigration and a failed globalist agenda — including green ideology. It's no coincidence that Macron was humiliated in France while Germany's center-right Christian Democrats came top after toughening the line on immigration — with the AfD second.

Predictions