Ethiopian Government, Tigray Rebels Accept Peace Talks Invitation

Facts

• On Wednesday, the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership reportedly accepted the African Union's (AU) invitation to participate in peace talks. The negotiations are scheduled to begin on Saturday in South Africa.
• According to Addis Ababa, the invitation is consistent with the government's position of holding "talks without preconditions." The TPLF also expressed its agreement but requested further specifics on participants, observers, and guarantors.
• The negotiations will reportedly be mediated by a "troika of negotiators" that include AU envoy to the Horn of Africa Olusegun Obasanjo, former Kenyan Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta, and South Africa's former Deputy Pres. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.
• Previously, the two sides disagreed over who should mediate the negotiations. While Addis Ababa favored Obasanjo, the TPLF insisted on Kenyatta and cited restoring basic services such as electricity, communications, and banking in Tigray as another precondition for talks.
• On Tuesday, the TPLF claimed a drone strike killed at least 65 refugees in the Tigray town of Adi Daero. Earlier, it had announced it was withdrawing from Ethiopia's Amhara region for "tactical" reasons to counter an alleged offensive by Eritrean forces.
• The planned peace talks come after renewed fighting broke out between Eritrean troops — allied with the Ethiopian government — and TPLF forces in late August, ending a five-month truce. The talks would mark the highest-level negotiations between the TPLF and Addis Ababa since the conflict erupted in November 2020.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, East African, MSN, and DW.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Eurasia Review. The TPLF started the war in 2020 and has so far shown no real interest in constructive talks to end hostilities, instead using government-initiated humanitarian ceasefires merely as tactical breathing space. The rebels are taking their Ethiopian compatriots hostage and even stealing aid supplies. But military and international pressure are growing. For the people of Ethiopia, one can only hope that the TPLF and their Western accomplices are serious about peace this time.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by 1945. All previous attempts by Ethiopian PM Abiy to break the Tigrayans' resistance through collective punishment and starvation have failed, but in the meantime, the economic situation is also increasingly deteriorating. So even if Abiy has so far used negotiations only as a delaying tactic to reposition his troops, perhaps this time, the will for peace will prevail in Addis Ababa — in great thanks to the US, which has always advocated for peace and negotiations in Ethiopia.