Ethiopian Army Captures Three Towns In Tigray

Facts

• The Ethiopian government declared on Tuesday that its military has taken control of the towns of Shire, Alamata, and Korem from rebel forces in the war-torn Tigray region. The gains were allegedly achieved without the need for fighting in urban areas.
• Tigray officials had previously conceded the loss of Shire, one of the region's biggest towns and the home of thousands already displaced from other areas by the conflict. The UN has expressed concern about air strikes carried out by the federal government in the region.
• These captures are the most significant battlefield shifts in the conflict since Tigrayan forces were forced back within Tigray's borders. They lost significant ground that had been gained when forces advanced into Amhara as far as Debre Sina, a town 190km away from the national capital Addis Ababa.
• The Ethiopian war has intensified since the collapse of a five-month truce in August, which led UN Secretary General António Guterres to state that the situation is "spiraling out of control" and that hostilities "must end now."
• The African Union, the US, and the EU have all stated their concern over a recent escalation in fighting as peace talks planned to take place in South Africa, which were announced last week, were eventually postponed.
• In September, UN investigators released a report accusing both the federal government and Tigrayan rebels of committing war crimes, including massacres and sexual assaults, during the conflict that first erupted in November 2020.

Sources: Al Jazeera, France24, Reuters, Washington Post, Africa, and New York Times.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Ethiopia Insight. The international community has enabled the federal government to wage this genocidal war, commit atrocities, and eliminate the people of Tigray in a heinous attempt to control the region and ultimately redraw the Horn of Africa. Foreign actors have failed to solve this crisis – the only way to put an end to this conflict is to allow Tigrayans to decide whether they want to remain in Ethiopia or become an independent nation.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by ENA. The federal government and many other actors have attempted to send humanitarian aid and essential goods to help the people of Tigray during this conflict, but the so-called Tigrayan rebel forces have looted and confiscated deliveries for their own benefit. They're terrorists who've been prolonging the war in order to avoid facing accountability for the atrocities they've committed for 27 years.

Predictions