Ethiopia, Tigray Meet for Talks in South Africa

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Facts

  • On Tuesday, delegates from the warring Ethiopian government and rival Tigray forces met in Pretoria, South Africa, for peace talks. It's their first formal meeting after nearly two years of conflict. The talks will last until Oct. 30, according to a government spokesperson.
  • The talks are being brokered by the African Union (AU) and facilitated by former Nigerian Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo, recently-resigned Kenyan Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta, and former South African Deputy Pres. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.
  • The Ethiopian government said the talks are "an opportunity to peacefully resolve the conflict.” The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) delegation — who arrived on a US military aircraft with the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer — confirmed their attendance.
  • The talks begin just days after Ethiopian and allied forces from Eritrea took over some urban areas in Tigray, the rebel region of 5M people that has been cut off from the world since renewed fighting began in late August.
  • According to the UN, both sides have committed abuses. Human rights investigators most recently accused the Ethiopian government of using “starvation of civilians” as a weapon of war. Between the conflict and starvation, the US has warned that the death toll could reach 500k.
  • The conflict stems from the TPLF losing nearly 30 years of domination in the Ethiopian government, with the party falling out with PM Abiy Ahmed in 2018. The TPLF accuses the government of overcentralizing its power and oppressing Tigrayans, while the government accuses the TPLF of trying to regain its dominance.

Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC News, VOA, CBC, ABC, and Reuters.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by ABC. As federal government forces gain more ground against the TPLF, it seems like a good time for peace talks to begin. The conflict has led to too many casualties, and the only way for it to end is for the rebels to acknowledge Ethiopian authority and agree to unify as one country again.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Phys. Though the history of Ethiopia-Tigray relations is complicated, the fact remains that before gaining power 30 years ago, Tigrayans were a poor, victimized group with no political agency within the Ethiopian government. If Tigray concedes to the Ethiopian government now, they may very well end up back in a state of poverty and powerlessness.

Predictions