Ethiopia: Tigray Forces Withdraw 65% of Fighters From Frontline

Facts

• A month after a ceasefire agreement was signed to end the two-year conflict in Northern Tigray, at least 65% of Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters have withdrawn from the battle-lines in Ethiopia.
• According to Tadesse Wereda, the commander-in-chief of the TPLF, the "disengaged" rebel forces have "moved to designated places."
• On the possibility of 100% disengagement of his troops, Wereda said there were still, "forces in the areas that don't want peace," and that until "the threat was reduced," the TPLF would not wholly withdraw from the front lines.
• The conflict in Ethiopia began in November 2020 — tens of thousands of civilians have been killed so far. According to UN reports, the conflict has resulted in human rights violations by all sides, including extra-judicial killings, raping, and looting.
• As per the truce on November 2, Ethiopia's warring sides formally agreed to cease hostilities permanently. A follow-up agreement to facilitate unrestricted humanitarian access, ensure the protection of civilians, and disarm the TPLF fighters was subsequently signed on November 12.
• However, the Tigray Emergency Center reported that Eritrean forces – which fight alongside the Ethiopian military and Amhara militias – have killed 111 civilians, injured at least 103, and destroyed over 241 homes in Tigray since the ceasefire.

Sources: Al Jazeera, France24, Reuters, and Washington Post.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Washington Post. The TPLF is following the deal's conditions, even though the federal government continues obstructing aid delivery to Tigray. The TPLF's leadership signed the agreement for the sake of the Tigrayans, as the region yearned for peace and stability after two years of terrible bloodshed. However, since Eritrea's atrocities and refusal to withdraw from the region threaten to derail the peace process, the TPLF needs to stay in the region to protect its people.
• Narrative B, as provided by Tesfa. Though the developments are promising, the West-backed TPLF has used previous ceasefires to reorganize its forces, buy more weapons, and recruit more rebels. This ceasefire may not be any different. The TPLF has continued to make false statements regarding aid delivery and airstrikes. The fact that the TPLF wants the Eritrean military forces to exit Ethiopia and give up their arms and ammunition shows its true colors — it may be simply preparing to reignite the brutal war.

Predictions