Estonia's Pro-Ukraine PM Kaja Kallas Wins Election

Facts

• The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced on Monday that Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had won Sunday's election as her center-right Reform Party secured 37 seats in parliament, three more than it previously controlled.¹
• Preliminary returns from a completed ballot count indicated that the Reform Party, which leads the outgoing three-party coalition government, received 31.2% of the vote, while the right-wing EKRE party took second place with 16.1%. The ethnic Russian minority-favored Center Party garnered 15.3% of the ballots, with the liberal centrist Eesti 200 coming in fourth after winning 14% of the vote.²
• Despite soaring inflation and an economic slowdown last year, this general election was largely seen as a referendum on the country's support for Ukraine as PM Kallas, who has become the face of eastern EU members' opposition to Russia, faced Euroskeptic rivals.³
• Estonia's first female head of government will now have to form a coalition with members of Parliament from rival parties to remain in office, an almost inevitable task due to the format of the country's political system.⁴
• If she succeeds in creating a functioning coalition, the country would fasten its pro-European and pro-Ukraine stance, as well as likely speed up its transition to green energy.⁵
• The 2023 Riigikogu elections marked the first time that more than 50% of the votes were cast online in Estonia, with 313,510 of the ballots being submitted via the internet. Only an estimated 1,329 votes were annulled.⁶

Sources: ¹Wall Street Journal, ²Independent, ³Economist, ⁴New York Times, ⁵Guardian and ⁶Err.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Newsweek. This electoral result is a huge defeat to the Kremlin and Russophiles, as Estonians have decided to extend and reinforce the mandate of PM Kallas and her Reform Party on a platform stressing support for the Ukrainian resistance in the face of Russian aggression. Estonia will continue to be among the staunchest allies of Kyiv and carry on pushing its NATO and EU allies to deepen assistance for Ukraine and isolate Russia.
• Narrative B, as provided by RT. The ruling Reform Party exploited the e-vote system to rig this national election, and its results should not be internationally recognized until online logs and sections of code have been disclosed and scrutinized. If allowed to remain in government, Kallas will lead an administration into continuing to give away all Estonian heavy weaponry to Ukraine at the cost of the nation's own security.

Predictions