Erdoğan Announces Turkish Elections for May 14

Facts

• Turkey's Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who plans to seek re-election, stated on Saturday that Turkey’s next parliamentary and presidential elections will take place on May 14. He vowed to make the formal announcement on March 10.
• Originally, the elections were scheduled to be held on June 18 but that date was changed reportedly so as not to have the elections coincide with the summer holiday season.
• Polls indicate the parliamentary and presidential elections will be close and will mark Erdoğan's biggest challenge in his two decades. He has been at the helm of Turkey's role as a regional military power, NATO member, and emerging market economy.
• Erdoğan, who has been in office since 2003 and president since 2014, is likely to face off against a six-party opposition alliance and a pro-Kurdish third party. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a second round will be held on May 28.
• This change of date means that the opposition will have less time to agree on a single candidate, with AFP reporting this week that their joint candidate would be appointed in February. The election campaign is expected to start on March 10.
• Istanbul's mayor İmamoğlu, the most favored candidate in the opposition camp, has been engulfed in a legal battle after being banned from politics last month. Meanwhile, CHP's party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has so far struggled to secure the approval of the other opposition leaders.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Euro, Reuters, VOA, France24, and RFI.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Daily Sabah. There is a lot of symbolism in Erdoğan's decision to move the national and presidential election forward to a historic date, May 14. On that day in 1950, the single-party era ended thanks to a popular vote. That election marked a new beginning for Turkey, just as Erdoğan sees this election: all the campaign focus on which political system, vision, and leader will bring the country into the next century.
• Narrative B, as provided by Intercept. Erdoğan has brought the vote forward by a month in a bid to get rid of the opposition, possibly forever, as the upcoming national election could be the last chance to prevent the country from descending into a personalist regime. While polls indicate a tight race, the "Table of Six" coalition is yet to converge around a single leader. The West should not hesitate to take bold action to help ensure that the domestic opposition gets a fair shake by considering revoking Ankara's membership in the NATO alliance.

Predictions