Erdoğan Visits Egypt's Sisi to Mend Ties, Cooperate on Gaza

Facts

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan traveled to Cairo on Wednesday to meet his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, signaling a 'new stage in relations' after over a decade of hostility and tension.1
  • During a joint press conference after bilateral talks, Erdoğan said Turkey was determined to support Egypt to end the war in Gaza and vowed to boost bilateral trade to $15B in the short term, adding that the two countries were also considering energy and defense cooperation.2
  • Sisi, in turn, said that the two countries were in agreement regarding the necessity of pursuing an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, calm in the West Bank, and, more broadly, an Israeli-Palestinian peace process that would facilitate the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.3
  • Erdoğan has been an outspoken critic of Israel's conduct in Gaza, saying that 'more can be done” during his visits to Egypt and the UAE. Hamas' Oct. 7 attack against Israel killed around 1.2K Israelis — the resulting war has killed some 28K Palestinians, according to Gaza's health ministry.4
  • Egypt's relationship with Turkey soured in 2013, after Sisi ousted then-Egyptian Pres. Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and an ally of Erdoğan's Turkey. Since then, they have backed opposing sides in regional disputes, including the Libyan civil war and the Qatari diplomatic crisis.5
  • Despite rhetorical hostility, trade between the two continued. Diplomatic relations began to thaw in 2021 when a Turkish delegation visited Egypt to discuss normalization. More recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said an agreement had been finalized to provide drones to Cairo.6

Sources: 1France 24, 2Reuters, 3Associated Press, 4The Times of Israel, 5Al Jazeera and 6Al Arabiya.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Middle East Eye. This thaw in Egyptian-Turkish relations is another sign that the region's geopolitical chessboard has significantly transformed since it was upended in 2011 during the Arab Spring. However, Cairo and Ankara still have several disagreements that must be bridged, namely Libya, energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Muslim Brotherhood. Both sides will have to expend significant political will to resolve mutual mistrust and find rapprochement.
  • Narrative B, as provided by The National. Though Turkey has encouraged discord in the Arab world and there are many issues yet to be resolved, ultimately, it is in the interest of Egypt, Turkey, and the region that relations between Cairo and Ankara improve. Relations were thawing already, but Israel's war on Gaza has accelerated the pace of cooperation. Concerns unrelated to Gaza, such as Libya, are also making progress, as Turkey and Egypt are reaching the same conclusions on how to end the country's political crisis.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Daily Sabah. At this critical juncture, it is necessary to work toward regional unity in the face of Israel's aggression in Gaza. Though Egypt and Turkey may have some political disagreements on regional issues, economic ties have only strengthened in the last decade, and they are brotherly nations both willing to set aside their differences for the sake of Palestinians in Gaza. Indeed, only political unity and regional integration can deter Israel from oppressing Palestinians.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Haaretz. While this meeting does conclude reconciliation after roughly a decade of hostility, Sisi knows that Erdoğan would add nothing to ongoing diplomatic efforts to release Israeli hostages in Gaza and pause the fighting. Unlike Turkey, for which the Israel-Hamas war represents merely an opportunity to criticize Israel and expand its regional influence, Egypt has it clear that cooperation with Jerusalem is crucial for its own national security, especially due to the looming threat of Gazans crossing into Sinai.

Predictions