Erdoğan Submits Sweden's Bid for NATO Membership to Turkish Parliament

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Facts

  • Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a protocol confirming Sweden’s ascension into NATO on Monday and submitted the bid to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey for ratification, making good on a promise he made to the alliance in July amid speculations over the delay.1
  • While welcomed as a major breakthrough for the Swedish ascension to the bloc, there is no guarantee that the national assembly will move quickly. Before the general assembly proceeds to the final vote, the parliament's foreign affairs commission must approve the bid.2
  • Additionally, since parliament reconvened earlier this month, Turkish officials have repeatedly urged Stockholm to take more concrete steps to suppress the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) — which has been designated as a 'terrorist organization' by Turkey, the EU, and the US.3
  • Sweden applied to join NATO together with Finland following the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine last year, but only the membership of Finland has been approved so far.4
  • This comes as Turkey and Hungary have yet to ratify Sweden's membership, holding its ascension process up. All 31 NATO members must endorse an application to the bloc.5
  • Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that a spokesperson for the Hungarian government did not immediately respond to requests for comment on its own stance on Sweden's bid.6

Sources: 1Politico, 2Bloomberg, 3Al Jazeera, 4Reuters, 5Associated Press and 6FT.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The Local Sweden. While claiming the delay in Sweden's ratification to be down to a lack of progress in Ankara's demanded crackdown of the PKK, Erdoğan's unexpected demands last month for F-16 fighter jets from the US in return for its NATO approval makes any judgment on the outcome of the parliamentary process difficult to estimate. There's no telling when Turkey — and Hungary — will finally allow Sweden to join the alliance.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Daily Sabah. Turkey has upheld its promise despite Sweden repeatedly allowing the PKK to spread propaganda and hold anti-Turkey rallies, as Stockholm has reassured that it will not support such an organization to grow its influence. Given that a bilateral security mechanism, as well as a NATO Special Coordinator on Counterterrorism, has been agreed to be established if Sweden joins the alliance, there is confidence in a speedy ratification.

Predictions