Erdoğan Hints Finland's NATO Bid May Be Accepted Without Sweden

Facts

  • Turkish President Recep Erdoğan stated on Sunday that his government could accept Finland into NATO without ratifying Sweden, citing that Helsinki 'should not make the same mistake' Stockholm did.
  • His signaling comes as Ankara last week suspended dialogue to accept the Nordic duo's accession to the alliance in the wake of a protest in the Swedish capital in which a copy of the Quran was burned.
  • On Saturday, the Turkish government issued a travel warning for its citizens in European countries, citing an increase in anti-Turkish protests carried out by people allegedly linked to organizations it characterizes as terror organizations and Islamophobia.
  • Both Finland and Sweden dropped last year their longstanding military nonalignment by applying to join NATO following the start of the Ukraine war, a move that requires unanimous approval within the alliance.
  • Turkey is along with Hungary the only two countries yet to ratify these bids, with the Hungarian parliament being expected to approve them in February. Turkey is concerned that Sweden has refused to extradite some 120 people Ankara alleges are either linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) or the 2016 coup attempt.
  • Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto stressed earlier this month that his country should join NATO at the same time as Sweden, arguing that negotiations with Turkey have become 'heated' due to Turkey's looming May elections.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters, Associated Press, DW, Al Jazeera, and BBC News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Daily Sabah. Turkey does not oppose NATO enlargement, however, it does take a stand against those who protect those who pose a security threat to Ankara. Sweden holds a bigger PKK presence than Finland and has long been criticized for its housing of various terrorists. There must be a change in the country's stance towards the matter if they wish to join NATO alongside Finland.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Guardian. The statement by Erdoğan may be an attempt to reopen negotiations, or it may be an attempt to cause a divide between Finland and Sweden. While much of Turkey's disapproval has always been directed at Sweden, Finland has made it consistently clear that NATO entry is a joint ticket. Sweden is as valuable an asset to NATO as NATO is to Sweden, and — for the sake of the Atlantic Alliance — it will be best for all parties if the issue is resolved.

Predictions