Election Model: Harris, Trump in 'Dead Heat' Ahead of Debate

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Facts

  • The latest Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election model update suggests the presidential race between Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and former Pres. Donald Trump remains a toss-up ahead of their first debate on Sept. 10.[1]
  • The model predicted on Friday that Harris has a 55% chance of winning the White House in November, compared to 45% for Trump, and put the odds of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College at 0.5%.[2]
  • Harris is forecast to win four out of seven battleground states, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — or 50 out of 93 toss-up electoral votes to cross the minimum Electoral College threshold of 270.[2]
  • ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate the Harris and Trump hour-and-a-half debate on Tuesday at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.[3][4]
  • Meanwhile, the latest update to Nate Silver's presidential election forecast model — which includes factors that Decision Desk HQ/The Hill doesn't, such as momentum and convention adjustments — has a chance of Trump winning at 61.5%.[1][5]
  • Earlier this week, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, dubbed the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential elections, used his 'Keys to the White House' method to predict that Harris will defeat Trump.[6]

Sources: [1]The Hill (a), [2]The Hill (b), [3]Decision Desk HQ, [4]ABC News, [5]Breitbart and [6]Verity.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by US News & World Report. Kamala Harris has a golden chance to crush Trump at their upcoming face-off and keep her momentum, as long as she avoids falling for his bait and stays focused on her middle-class agenda. There's no doubt that the ABC debate will be key to the presidential race — and Harris holds the best cards.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Since Donald Trump is famous for his debate skills and people have long decided about him, the pressure will be on Harris on Tuesday. After all, debating a former president may be too challenging for the Democratic candidate, especially as she also has the Biden administration's poor record against her.

Predictions