Ecuador's Youngest-Ever President Daniel Noboa Sworn In

Facts

• Daniel Noboa, the 35-year-old scion of a banana business empire, was sworn in as Ecuador's president Thursday in a ceremony attended by Colombia's Gustavo Petro and other foreign representatives following his victory in the October violence-ridden snap elections.¹
• In a seven-minute speech, he urged Ecuadorians to join forces against misery and violence. Ecuador, which has a fiscal deficit larger than $3.2B and a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 62%, has seen a boom in homicides due to drug cartels as well as an unresolved electricity crisis.²
• Noboa has vowed to implement a state of emergency, terminate some citizen rights, and station the military in the streets to tackle drug-related violence. On Friday, the president made good on a campaign promise to repeal rules allowing for the possession of small amounts of drugs.³
• Given that his National Democratic Action has only 17 seats in the 137-member parliament, he has formed an alliance with the right-wing Social Christian Party and the leftist movement linked to former Pres. Rafael Correa, giving him a majority to make political appointments.⁴
• The one-term congressman will serve the remainder of the tenure of his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, that lasts until May 2025, as Lasso brought his term to an early end to dissolve the National Assembly in May and avoid a possible impeachment.⁵
• Noboa is the latest in a string of young leaders elected heads of state in Latin America in their 30s, following the steps of El Salvador's Nayib Bukele and Chile's Gabriel Borić.⁶

Sources: ¹France 24, ²El País English, ³Barron's, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵Associated Press and ⁶Verity.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. The success of Noboa's months-long term will impact the future of democracy in Latin America, so Washington must swiftly step in to help him pull Ecuador out of its current crises and prevent the nation from once again supporting the authoritarian, pro-China correísmo. The costs of pursuing this action are little, particularly considering its substantial payoff, but the window of opportunity is closing.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by People's World. With Noboa in office, it's likely that the US will seek once again to intervene militarily in Ecuador with the feigned intent of collaborating against narco-trafficking and strengthening democratic governance. These moves, however, are intended exclusively to protect American interests in a country that has vast extractable reserves.

Predictions