Ecuadorians Approve Security-Focused Referendum

Facts

• Voters in Ecuador have approved new security-related questions in a referendum held on Sunday, including allowing the military to support police and stiffer penalties for crimes such as terrorism.¹
• According to data from the National Electoral Council, early results suggest that all the nine security measures that Pres. Daniel Noboa brought forward are on track to receive around a two-thirds approval margin.²
• Two unrelated questions, which would have recognized international arbitration as a means to settle financial conflicts and reformed labor laws to allow fixed-term and hourly employment contracts, were rejected by a similar margin.³
• This comes as the once-peaceful South American country has faced increased violence in recent years due to transnational drug cartels. Two mayors have been killed this week alone, in addition to a third one last month.⁴
• On Friday, Noboa declared a two-month state of emergency to thwart possible sabotage and terrorist acts against energy infrastructure as the country faces a major energy crisis.⁵
• Earlier, the market-friendly Ecuadorian president ordered businesses and government offices to shut down for two days amid a shortfall in energy supply due to drought in the country and neighboring Colombia.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²CNN, ³CuencaHighLife, ⁴France 24, ⁵Sputnik International and ⁶Bloomberg.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Voz Media. As Ecuador faces an unprecedented security crisis, with drug lords exerting control over prisons as well as influencing the media, political sphere, and judiciary system, there's no other way than to apply the Bukele alternative — which Ecuadorians badly want. This vote has demonstrated their broad support for tough-on-crime measures.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Conversation. With this referendum, Noboa has sought to get public support to replicate in Ecuador what Nayib Bukele did in El Salvador as if this anti-crime strategy was a magic solution. However, the effectiveness of so-called Bukelism is nothing but a myth that authoritarians have promoted to undermine democracy and the rule of law in their own countries.

Predictions