Ecuador: Presidential Race Heads to González-Noboa Runoff

Facts

• Ecuador's National Electoral Council announced on Sunday that the Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana party's Luisa González would compete in a second-round runoff against entrepreneur Daniel Noboa on October 15, after neither candidate won over 50% of the vote in the presidential election.¹
• With 85% of the ballot counted, González was leading with 33% of the vote and Noboa was in second place with nearly 24%.²
• While González is reportedly considered a pupil of former Pres. Rafael Correa, Noboa is a banana industry scion and son of Alvaro Noboa, who ran for the presidency a record six times and made the runoff three times without securing victory.³
• The snap election was called in May when outgoing Pres. Guillermo Lasso dissolved the opposition-led congress, allegedly to halt impeachment proceedings against him. Whoever wins the second round will hold office until May 2025.⁴
• Following a campaign marred by political violence, especially during its final week when presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated, Sunday's voting passed without incident.⁵
• Ecuador's top electoral authority also reported that cyberattacks — traced to Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, and Ukraine — had targeted the electronic voting system used by Ecuadorians living abroad but failed to disrupt the vote count.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Al Jazeera, ³Bloomberg, ⁴The New York Times, ⁵BBC News, and ⁶The Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Washington Post. Democracy is on the ballot in the upcoming Ecuadorian runoff election, as the country desperately needs to tackle organized crime. If the nation refrains from electing the candidate picked by Rafael Correa — a corrupt politician and authoritarian who has been criminally convicted — Washington should ramp up cooperation with Quito to show that lawful methods are effective at fighting violent drug gangs.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by TeleSUR. Neoliberal policies have plunged Ecuador into security and economic crises — it's time for Ecuadorians to let the progressive Citizen Revolution return to power, as the country can't risk losing more time trialing inexperienced politicians. In the late 2000s, Correa managed to move a devastated, hopeless country forward. Today, he will assist González in getting the country back on track.

Predictions