Dutch PM Rutte Meets King After Government Collapse

Facts

• Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte met King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands on Saturday to discuss forming a caretaker administration, a day after he offered the resignation of his coalition government in writing amid a dispute over migration.¹
• Talks lasted about an hour and a half, with the country's longest-serving prime minister — in power since 2010 — stating that the confidential discussions with the monarch were positive.²
• The collapse of his four-party center-right coalition followed two days of meetings over the issue of immigration, with the government failing to reach a consensus on how to reduce the inflow of asylum seekers — projected to reach a record-breaking high of over 70K applications this year.³
• Rutte's VVD sought a two-tier system for immigrants seeking asylum that would limit family reunification to war refugees — even those already in the Netherlands. While the CDA party backed the proposal, the two remaining coalition parties objected.⁴
• Given that the Electoral Council announced that fresh polls cannot be held until at least mid-November, it is very unlikely that the King will swiftly dissolve the Tweede Kamer — the country's lower house of parliament — as this decree triggers a three-month deadline for the entire electoral procedure to be completed.⁵
• Rutte, who has been nicknamed "Teflon" Mark for his capacity to overcome political scratches over a 12-year tenure, stated on Friday that he is interested in seeking a fifth term in an election in which his main challenger will be a farmers' protest party that took a majority of seats in the Dutch Senate following provincial polling in March.⁶

Sources: ¹DW, ²BBC News, ³New York Post, ⁴POLITICO, ⁵NL Times, and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). While parties in the coalition have long disagreed on the asylum issue, the VVD is to blame for this breakdown as it forced Rutte to push a tougher policy to appease dissent in his own ranks. As anti-government feeling has skyrocketed in the country and modern tensions have ripped the political playbook, snap elections are a golden opportunity for those challenging the status quo in the Netherlands.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. It's certain that the Farmers-Citizen Movement came from nowhere to become a political powerhouse, but Rutte is not nicknamed "Teflon" for nothing. Despite collapsing the coalition, his hard line on migration is a vote-winner, and he's likely to be backed by establishment parties. Given that he has returned to power on the three previous occasions he has resigned, another victory wouldn't be a surprise.

Predictions