Dow Falls 375 Points Amid Disappointing GDP Report

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Facts

  • The Dow Jones slipped 375.12 points (.98%) to finish at 38,085.80 on Thursday after a troubling report by the Commerce Department showed gross domestic product (GDP) rising at a weaker pace than anticipated.1
  • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP expanded 1.6% in Q1 — considerably lower than the 2.4% expected by economists — while inflation increased at an annual pace of 3.4%.1
  • Thursday's report shows that GDP grew by 4.9% and 3.4% in Q3 and Q4 of 2023 respectively, while the annualized GDP chain price — a proxy for inflation — increased from 1.6% to 3.1%.2
  • Earlier in the day, the Dow dropped by 690 points (1.8%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.5% and 2.1%, respectively. It is predicted that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting.3
  • Meta's shares fell more than 10% after its disappointing sales forecasts and robust artificial intelligence spending plans raised investor concerns. However, treasury yields have jumped to a yearly high of 4.73%.4
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose at an annualized rate of 3.7%, above the expected 3.4%, while the PCE price index, which includes food and energy prices, went from 1.8% in Q4 to 3.4% in Q1.5

Sources: 1CNBC, 2CNN, 3Forbes, 4Investopedia and 5Investor's Business Daily.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by ZeroHedge. The US economy has been in a bad state for years now, battling persistent inflation as well as a recession. Traditional indicators such as GDP and unemployment rate haven't told the whole story, but Thursday's report paints a scary picture that reflects reality for many Americans. High inflation and slow growth are bad by themselves, but a combination of the two could be catastrophic for an economy hoping to return to its former glory.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. The US economy is chugging along just fine despite weaker-than-expected GDP growth, and many indicators show that it's firing on all cylinders. Underlying metrics suggest growth is robust, and the labor market is the strongest it's been in 50 years. Meanwhile, inflation continues to come down, balancing the economic picture. Balancing growth, employment, and inflation is the key to a strong economy, and the US is progressing in all three areas.

Predictions