Disinformation & Misinformation

Facts

• ORIGINS AND HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY: From the moment complex language evolved, humans have had a complex relationship between thought, language, and the art of deception. 'Disinformation' is the intentional spread of false content, while 'misinformation' lacks deceptive intent. Psychologists found in 1977 that repeated claims are more likely to be believed irrespective of their truth, while recent studies also suggest cognitive biases such as absentmindedness and motivated reasoning play a role. Despite this, surveys reveal people overestimate their ability to discern truth from falsehood.^{[1][2][3][4][5]}
• HISTORICAL EVOLUTION: Disinformation and misinformation have been present throughout human history, including being noted in ancient Roman times, and evolving after the 15th century with the invention of the printing press. The spread of false content is particularly prevalent during times of conflict. Disinformation and propaganda were central to both world wars, while during the Cold War, both the US and Soviet Union used sophisticated disinformation campaigns to advance their national interests.^[6][7][8]
• MODERN SPREAD & IMPACT: The rise of social media has drastically increased the speed and reach of mis/disinformation, with a 2018 MIT study finding that false news spreads up to ten times faster than true news on Twitter (now X). Disinformation campaigns have allegedly been used to target voters in elections worldwide, and dis/misinformation also shaped much of the COVID debate. According to the World Economic Forum, mis/disinformation is the top short-term (two-year) threat faced by the world.^{[9][10][11][12][13]}
• TODAY'S FOREIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS: The US claims Russia, China, and Iran use disinformation to interfere with American society and politics, with Russia posing the 'predominant threat' to elections, China aiming to 'sow division,' and Iran fueling distrust in political institutions. Russia, China, and Iran deny the accusations, claiming the US, in contrast, uses information warfare and propaganda itself in order to justify its own national interests. Foreign influence operations, and allegations of them, leave fingerprints on conflicts and political processes worldwide.^{[14][15][16][17][18]}
• IMPACT ON THE US ELECTION: According to Elon University, 70% of Americans believe AI-generated fake information will influence the 2024 US elections. Meanwhile, Harvard University found bipartisan agreement that disinformation poses substantial risks and harms all groups, though consensus breaks down over who is responsible domestically, despite agreement on foreign actors' alleged intent.^[19][20]
• COMBATTING MIS/DISINFORMATION: The US is part of international agreements including the Council of Europe's binding AI Framework, that call for increased digital literacy. In June, a 33.2K person megastudy of nine intervention methods found media literacy tips to be “particularly effective” in combating false/misleading online content, showing less utility decay over multiple rounds and being the only method to both actively increase the discernment effect of true headlines and decrease the discernment effect of false headlines.^[21][22]

Sources: ^[1]NCBI (a), ^[2]SpringerLink, ^[3]Nature, ^[4]www.ofcom.org.uk, ^[5]Sciencedirect, ^[6]Wilson Center, ^[7]Icfj, ^[8]Armywarcollege, ^[9]MIT News, ^[10]Science, ^[11]NCBI (b), ^[12]WHO, ^[13]World Economic Forum, ^[14]DNI (a), ^[15]DNI (b), ^[16]Chinamil, ^[17]Mid, ^[18]MFA, ^[19]elon.edu, ^[20]Misinformation Review, ^[21]COE and ^[22]OSF.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Brookings and Forbes. With more people than ever interconnected online, the spread of misinformation poses a significant threat to public discourse and democratic processes. While it's pivotal to promote digital media literacy to help combat this, platforms must also take greater responsibility for the content they host, implementing proactive moderation measures to identify and limit the reach of misinformation in order to strengthen global information integrity.
• Narrative B, as provided by Washington Examiner. The term 'disinformation' is nothing more than an attempt to suppress freedom of speech. In Orwellian fashion, the censorship of alternative information sources under the guise of countering 'foreign malign influence' is but a veiled war against civil liberties. Unmoderated social media conversation should not be shunned but instead celebrated for allowing individual autonomy outside the reach of increasingly interventionist governments.

Predictions