Deputy Head of Hamas's Politburo Killed in Beirut

Facts

• Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that an explosion in Beirut's southern suburbs killed the deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri. Reports say the explosion occurred in Mashrifiyah, an area that also hosts a headquarters for Hezbollah, the armed group and political party.¹
• Al-Arouri, originally from the West Bank, became one of the founders of Hamas's military wing, the Qassam Brigades. After being released from Israeli detention, he lived in Syria and Turkey, later settling in Lebanon. In recent weeks, al-Arouri had acted as a spokesman for the group.²
• Lebanese media also reported that at least three others were killed, including two officials in the Qassam Brigades. Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the “new Israeli crime” that he said aimed to escalate hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Israel has not officially taken responsibility for the strike.³
• However, a US official quoted in the Washington Post claimed the Israel Defense Forces were responsible for a drone strike that killed al-Arouri, a key figure in the ongoing hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Lebanon has said that it will file an official complaint at the UN over the killing.⁴
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Hamas's position regarding hostage negotiations had slightly 'softened,' a likely reference to Hamas’s pre-conditions for talks that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza and agree to a permanent ceasefire, which Hamas has not publicly rescinded.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed nearly 22K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. As a result of the Oct. 7 attacks, 1.2K Israelis were killed, and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip by Hamas.⁶

Sources: ¹AL, ²Al Jazeera, ³Al Arabiya, ⁴Washington Post, ⁵The Times of Israel and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Though Israel of course has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities, it must wage this war in a humane and responsible way. The number of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians against peace, pushing them into the arms of Hamas, and an expansion of the conflict into Lebanon would be disastrous. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas or its leadership to survive. Now that Israel has gained control over large swaths of the Gaza Strip, and internal and external pressure on the Israeli government to wind down its combat operations is growing, it is appropriate for its forces to reorient their military posture and focus on neutralizing Hamas's' leadership. Nonetheless, Hamas's military capabilities must still be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip uninhabitable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely, as Israel expands their colonial war with impunity.

Predictions