Democratic Rep. Phillips Will Challenge Biden

Facts

  • Third-term Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on Friday announced he will challenge Pres. Joe Biden for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.1
  • The millionaire businessman and founder of a gelato company announced his campaign launch in a one-minute online video and then held an event in New Hampshire before filing for that state’s primary election.2
  • In an interview with CBS, Phillips, 54, explained his decision by citing polling that shows former Pres. Donald Trump defeating the 80-year-old Biden in a potential rematch, and his opinion that it's time for a younger generation to lead the party.3
  • Former Republican strategist Steve Schmidt, who came to prominence while working on campaigns for former Pres. George W. Bush and the late Sen. John McCain, will be advising Phillips.4
  • Biden’s job approval rating among Democrats this week dropped to 75% — the worst of his presidency — in a Gallup poll. His overall approval rating is 37%, with 5% of Republicans approving of the job he’s doing.5
  • Although Phillips admits this is a longshot bid, he has a chance to make some noise in New Hampshire. Biden won’t be on the primary ballot there in order to comply with the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) new primary schedule, which now features South Carolina as the first primary Feb. 3, 2024.6

Sources: 1USA Today, 2Reuters, 3CBS, 4CNN, 5BBC News and 6New York Post.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Huffington Post. Phillips has the credentials of a candidate who can appeal to moderate voters, as proven by his flipping of a former Republican-held district. He can self-fund his campaign and provide a healthy alternative to an unpopular president rather than being a spoiler. If current polling is accurate, Phillips might be Democrats' chance to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Guardian. This isn't a longshot bid, it's a no-shot bid by Phillips. No one outside Minnesota knows who he is, and the entirety of his in-state party has vowed its devotion to Biden. Phillips is just wasting valuable resources that should go toward making sure Biden serves a second term. Phillips might be doing this to boost his own name, but he could tear the party apart in the process.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Democrats claim they want to beat Trump, but polling shows a vast number of Democrats are concerned about Biden's age and don't want him to run for reelection. The DNC might have made a mistake going all-in for Biden without leaving open a chance for a challenger who might better appeal to its constituency. This could put Trump in the driver's seat.

Predictions