Day 350: Zelenskyy Visits UK, Discusses Military Assistance

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Facts

  • Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy on Wednesday conduct his first visit to the UK since the beginning of the Russian invasion almost one year ago. He addressed British lawmakers and met with King Charles III during his visit, and expressed gratitude for UK military assistance including tanks and long-range missiles.
  • The news comes amid an escalation of Ukrainian officials' public lobbying campaign for western fighter jets. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has confirmed that Britain 'will expand' its support of Ukrainian soldiers to include providing training for 'NATO-standard fighter jets.' Sunak said the move, 'underlines our commitment to not just provide military equipment for the short term, but a long-term pledge to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine.'
  • Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands have made similar pledges to Ukraine, saying they will provide at least 100 'Leopard 1' tanks to the nation in the 'coming months.' The update came as the German defense minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Tuesday.
  • Elsewhere, Switzerland is reportedly poised to break its centuries-long stance of neutrality. Public support for Ukraine among the Swiss population appears to be putting pressure on the government to end a ban currently restricting the export of Swiss weapons to war zones.
  • Meanwhile, in Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that the EU's decision to introduce 'exemptions' to its price cap on oil revealed that Russian fuel was still in demand. Russian-state news agency TASS published Novak's comments on Wednesday, saying: 'This once again emphasises [sic] that our oil products are in demand in Europe.'
  • In other news, the appointment of former Ukrainian national police chief Ihor Klymenko as interior affairs minister has been ratified by Ukraine's parliament. His predecessor, Denys Monastyrskiy, was one of six high-ranking officials killed in a helicopter crash last month.
  • Both the US and Russia are sending emergency personnel to support the catastrophic Turkey/Syria earthquake, and it is possible that US and Russian teams will encounter each other on the ground as they work to provide urgent humanitarian support. Ukraine has also pledged to send a team of 87 rescue personnel from their State Emergency Services to support Turkey.

Sources: CNN, DW, Al Jazeera, Ukrinform, Reuters, Guardian, and Newsweek.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic. Making sure Ukraine continues to be well-armed is the only way to fend off Putin and Russia in this unprovoked war of aggression. The US and NATO must not simply offer up their latest and most hi-tech weapons however; combat is about supply lines and the West must ensure basic equipment and ammunition are kept flowing as needed.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AntiWar. Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There is a 5% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions