Day 366: Zelenskyy Pledges Ukrainian Victory on One-Year Anniversary of Invasion

Facts

• As Friday marked the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy commemorated those that had died defending their country, meanwhile pledging this would be the year of Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.¹
• 'It was a year of pain, sorrow, faith and unity. And this is a year of our invincibility. We know that this will be the year of our victory!' Zelenskyy wrote in an early morning message on Telegram. He also spoke at a commemorative event in Kyiv, attended by defense minister Oleksii Reznikov and commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhnyi, as well as other officials.²
• The milestone drew widespread messages of support from Western leaders, as well as promises of further military aid. US Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin unveiled a new $2B arms package that included several types of drones, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and various artillery rounds and munitions. The US also unveiled further sanctions against Russia on Friday.³
• Similarly, Britain outlined a further package of sanctions against Russia on the anniversary of the invasion. The country's defense minister, Ben Wallace, also told Times Radio that if NATO countries can provide Ukraine with their Soviet-era fighter jets, Britain would be willing to replenish their stocks with modern Typhoon jets.⁴
• Elsewhere, China has called for a ceasefire and the opening of peace talks, publishing a 12-point proposal to end the fighting on its foreign ministry website on Friday. Prior to seeing the details, Zelenskyy said the fact China was talking about peace was a positive step. However, US State Dept. spokesman Ned Price stated: 'We would like to see nothing more than a just and durable peace... but we are skeptical that reports of a proposal like this will be a constructive path forward.'⁵
• On the ground, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, claimed that his forces have taken control of Berkhivka, a village northwest of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian officials said two civilians were killed and seven more injured in Russian attacks on Donetsk over the past day. Five civilians were also injured in the Kharkiv region, while Dnipropetrovsk was attacked without reports of civilian casualties at this stage.⁶

Sources: ¹Ukrayinska pravda, ²Ukrinform, ³Associated Press (a), ⁴Standard, ⁵Associated Press (b) and ⁶Tass.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. One year into Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, allowing Moscow to achieve its goals and subvert the norms of international law and territorial sovereignty would be a moral travesty. The West must ensure Ukraine is well armed so that it can drive Russia out and prevent it from launching further invasions.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Since the war began, Western countries have poured fuel to the fire by relentlessly providing weapons to Ukraine — motivated by a desire to degrade Russia on the world stage, the West has dragged out the conflict rather than sought mediation. Ukrainians have paid the price for this with the destruction of their homeland and energy infrastructure, as well as through the deaths of thousands of soldiers. It's time to seek a political settlement.

Predictions