Day 357: Ukraine Re-enforcing Troop Numbers in Bakhmut, Wagner Head Says

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Facts

• Ukraine is sending hundreds of new troops to the Donetsk city of Bakhmut every day in what has been the fiercest battle of the war so far, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, said via Telegram on Tuesday.¹
• 'Bakhmut will not be taken tomorrow, because there is very strong resistance,' Prigozhin said. 'In all directions, the enemy is becoming more active and bringing in ever more reserves,' he continued, claiming that between 300 and 500 troops were being deployed and artillery fire intensifying 'every day.'¹
• The account was seemingly confirmed by Volodymyr Nazarenko, a Ukrainian deputy commander, who told Ukrainian radio: 'I would like to assure you that the Ukrainian forces are not going to surrender the city.' It comes after Western reports earlier in the week suggested Ukrainian forces may be preparing a withdrawal from Bakhmut.²
• Meanwhile, Russia's defense ministry claimed to have broken through Ukrainian defenses in the neighboring Luhansk region on Wednesday. A statement from the office of Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Luhansk and made no mention of a retreat. However, it said: 'The situation in the region remains difficult.' Neither account could be independently confirmed.³
• Ukrainian officials reported that one civilian was killed and three more were injured in Donetsk over the past day, while two civilians were also injured in the region of Kherson. Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv without reports of civilian injuries at this stage. Meanwhile, pro-Russia officials reported that five civilians were injured in Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk for the same time period.⁴
• Elsewhere, Ukraine's foreign ministry on Wednesday accused Russia of obstructing the Black Sea Grain Initiative by deliberately slowing down inspections and erecting other barriers to prevent ships from leaving ports. A day earlier, Sergey Vershinin, Russia's deputy foreign minister, said Russia may withdraw from the agreement as it is still failing to see any progress on its side of the deal, such as the lifting of sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer exports.⁵
• Further afield, researchers from the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab on Wednesday accused Russia of holding at least 6K Ukrainian children in political re-education camps across Russia and Crimea. The research was backed and funded by the US State Department.⁶

Sources: ¹Tass, ²Ukrainska pravda, ³Msn, ⁴Ukrinform (a), ⁵Ukrinform (b) and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Russia's inability to take the Donetsk city of Bakhmut is symbolic of the wider deficiencies that will prevent it from conducting further successful offensives in Ukraine.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Russian forces are continuing to make advances in Donetsk. It's only a matter of time before Moscow's forces take the city of Bakhmut and the remainder of the Donetsk region.

Predictions