Day 200: Ukraine Claims 40 Settlements Have Been 'Liberated'; ZNPP's Last Operating Reactor Shut Down

Facts

• As Russia continues to withdraw from the Kharkiv region after Ukraine made a rapid advance in its counteroffensive on Sat., Ukraine's Deputy Head of the Kharkiv region military administration announced that 40 settlements have been 'liberated,' noting, however, that this includes only places where Ukraine has seized full control, and there are more areas where Ukraine has raised its flag.¹
• Russia's Defense Ministry hasn't acknowledged the retreat, but rather has said that its forces are leaving the area 'temporarily' to redeploy to the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR). While Evgeniy Evtushenko, a member of the Russian parliament, has said that 'Russian armed forces will return control of all Russian land in the Kharkiv region.'²
• On Sun., Ukraine's military announced that its forces have now captured over 3k square km (1,158 square miles) of territory, though this hasn't been independently authenticated. This follows Pres. Zelenskyy's statement on Thurs. that put the figure at 1k square km, and then on Sat., at 2k square km. If confirmed, this latest number would mean that Kyiv's forces have tripled their stated gains in little over 48 hours.³
• Ukraine's counteroffensive reportedly won't stop in Kharkiv, as it appears to have opened a new front against Russian defenses on the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The head of the regional military administration for Luhansk has indicated that the city of Lysychansk is the new target.²
• Meanwhile, a back-up power line that connects the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to Ukraine's power grid was restored on Sat. night after shelling throughout the week saw it repeatedly struck. On Sun., its last operating reactor was shut down to 'transfer it to the safest state – cold shutdown,' Ukraine's nuclear operator, Energoatom, said.⁴
• However, Energoatom says the risk for continued power shuts 'remains high,' in which case ZNPP would have to rely on diesel generators. According to the nuclear operator, the facility only has enough diesel to last 10 days.⁴

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Firstindia, ³BBC News and ⁴Axios.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New Scientist. Experts have made it clear – the situation at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant presents the risk of another Chernobyl. Nuclear disaster has, miraculously, been avoided so far, but continuing risks the safety and effectiveness of staff to control the reactors could have catastrophic consequences.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Although Zaporizhzhia's cooling systems will be relatively vulnerable due to their contact with the outside world, the worst case scenario would only cause serious damage at a local level. Both Russia and Ukraine are over stating the risk of nuclear catastrophe to galvanize domestic support for the invasion and play upon Western fears to incentivize providing military and public support respectively.