Day 343: Russian Forces Claim 'Operational Encirclement' of Bakhmut

Improve the News Foundation -
0:00
/0:00

Facts

  • Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) claimed on Wednesday that their forces have largely encircled the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, which is referred to as Artyomovsk in Russian.
  • 'Artyomovsk is currently in an operational encirclement and our forces are closing in on the city,' Yan Gagin, an adviser to the head of the DPR, told Russian television on Wednesday. 'Fighting is underway to control the highway connecting Artyomovsk with Chasiv Yar because it is the only route that Ukraine can use to provide supplies to its troops in Artyomovsk.'
  • The city, with a pre-war population of 80K, has largely turned into a ghost town according to accounts. Russia poured scores of fighters to take the city, and Ukraine did the same to defend it — both are believed to have sustained heavy losses in months of fierce fighting since the summer.
  • Earlier in the week, Denys Yaroslavskyi, who commands a Ukrainian unit in Bakhmut, told CNN that leadership may decide to withdraw from the city to save lives if encirclement looks imminent.
  • Ukrainian officials said that four civilians had been killed in the Donetsk region over the past day — including two people in Bakhmut. One civilian was killed and another was injured in Kherson, officials added; one civilian was injured in Kharkiv while Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Sumy and Mykolaiv with no reports of civilian casualties at this stage.
  • Elsewhere, as Ukrainian Pres.  Zelenskyy said he is preparing a range of reforms targeting corruption ahead of an EU-Ukraine summit later this week, Ukrainian media reported that authorities raided the home of billionaire Igor Kolomoisky on Wednesday.

Sources: Tass, Tass, Associated press, Newsweek, Ukrinform and Bloomberg.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated press. In attempting to take Bakhmut, Russian forces have used scorched earth tactics and turned the once-popular tourist destination into a hell-on-earth. The Kremlin is so hungry for any success that it's willing to go to any length to take the city — even if it's been turned to rubble.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. If Russian forces take control of Bakhmut, it would be a devastating loss for Ukraine. Not only has Ukraine lost hundreds of troops in trying to retain the city, but this operation would also enable Russia to continue its advance into key areas of Donetsk including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There is a 3% chance that the regions surrounding the Dnipro River (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson) will be under Russian control by June 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions