Day 382: Russian Advance Stalled In Bakhmut, US Think Tank Says

Facts

• Despite Russian units from the paramilitary Wagner PMC launching continued ground attacks in Bakhmut, they are finding it difficult to make any significant advances in the eastern Ukrainian city, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank covering military affairs, said late Saturday.¹
• The ISW's report comes following claims from Wagner PMC chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his fighters had moved closer to capturing Bakhmut. In a video post, he stated: 'That's about a five-story building where the smoke comes from — the building of the city administration, the administrative center of the city. It's one kilometer and two hundred meters away.'²
• On Sunday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba compared the Russian forces' offensive in Bakhmut to a thief breaking into a house. In an interview with Germany's Bild newspaper, he said: 'When someone breaks into your house, you don't ask yourself how long you can resist... You think what else can you do to evict him from your home and get the police to arrest him.'³
• Meanwhile, the UK Ministry of Defense said Russia has suffered unusually heavy losses in Ukraine, but the impact varies dramatically: 'In proportion to the size of their population, the richest cities of Moscow and St Petersburg have been left relatively unscathed…In many of the Eastern regions, deaths are likely running, as a percentage of population, at a rate [more than] 30 times higher than in Moscow.'⁴
• Elsewhere, both Ukraine and Russia claimed to have inflicted significant losses over the past few days. While Russia's defense ministry said its forces continued to conduct military operations in Donetsk and had killed more than 220 Ukrainian servicemen, Ukrainian forces claimed that more than 1.1k Russian troops had been killed along the Bakhmut frontline.⁵

Sources: ¹Irish echo newspaper, ²The telegraph, ³Reuters, ⁴BBC News and ⁵Pcworld.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Artyomovsk is a strategically significant transport hub and logistical center for the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's forces have already sustained huge losses — including several of their best brigades — fighting to keep control of the city and Moscow's forces now have the upper hand on the ground. Artyomovsk will be a key victory for Russia in the wider battle for control of the Donbass.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Voa. Even if Russian forces do gain control of Bakhmut, it would not represent a decisive shift in the war. The development would be much more of a symbolic than strategic victory and, while Russia continues to funnel troops and resources into Bakhmut in the hope of being able to publicize some positive news about the invasion, Kyiv is making a more considered strategic assessment of its troops' position in view of the wider conflict.

Predictions