Day 371: Putin Orders Strengthening of Ukraine Border After Drone Attacks

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Facts

• Russian Pres. Putin on Tuesday ordered officials to tighten control of the border with Ukraine after a number of drones penetrated Russian air defenses and exploded within Russian territory this week. Although Putin didn't refer to any specific attacks in his speech, it came hours after a drone fell near the village of Gubastovo, less than 60 miles (100 km) from Moscow.¹
• According to the Guardian, the drone was a Ukrainian-made UJ-22 and had targeted a gas compression station belonging to the Russian energy giant Gazprom. The drone reportedly fell short of the facility, causing no damage, but the attack raised questions about how a drone was able to get so close to Moscow.²
• As reported earlier in the week, the attack follows a drone strike on a Rosneft oil refinery in the Russian region of Krasnodar Krai, as well as authorities in St Petersburg temporarily closing the airspace surrounding the city's airport after unconfirmed reports of a drone in the region.³
• Meanwhile, on Wednesday, both Russia and Ukraine said they repelled renewed drone attacks. Russia's defense ministry said it downed 10 Ukrainian drones approaching Crimea while Ukrainian officials said they downed a drone over the region of Kyiv and four others over the region of Poltava.⁴
• In the meantime, top diplomats from G20 countries — including US Sec. of State Antony Blinken and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov — arrived in New Delhi for the forum's foreign secretaries meeting that commenced with a welcome dinner on Wednesday before meetings kick off on Thursday.⁵
• India's foreign minister Vinay Kwatra said that while the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be an important point of discussion, he emphasized that questions relating to food, energy, and fertilizer security, as well as other concerns arising out of the conflict, will also receive equal attention.⁵

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Guardian, ³Itn, ⁴Ukrayinska pravda and ⁵Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by PBS NewsHour. This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a 'coup.' This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by National security archive. NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Predictions